Market Insight Apple and API drag down stocks and oil

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This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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USA: Free $30 Oye! Times readers Get FREE $30 to spend on Amazon, Walmart…Apple and API drag down stocks and oil

It’s now looking like yesterday’s breakout attempt by the NASDAQ may have been the bulls’ last hurrah for a while. By the ‎end of the day the rally had failed and overnight markets have reversed course to the downside. NASDAQ futures are down 0.6% compared with a 0.4% decline for Dow futures. European markets are also under pressure this morning with the FTSE down 0.8% and the Dax down 1.0%.

Traders continue to view earnings reports as chance to exit long positions rather than add to them. Positive reports haven’t generated much excitement and overall reports so far this week have been more mixed.

Last night Apple beat the street by a penny on earnings but overall sales were below expectations. The iPhone 7 launch appears to have gone ‎fairly well. IPhone sales beat expectations in the quarter while other products disappointed. Apple refused to disclose iWatch sales suggesting a failed product and making Apple look increasingly like a one trick pony.

Apple guided next quarter sales above street expectations but it remains to be seen it it can capitalize on Samsung’s problems or if it’s market share has peaked. Google’s results tomorrow may give a better idea. Traders took Apple’s results as neutral to slightly disappointing as it’s shares and the NASDAQ fell in‎ aftermarket trading.

Crude oil has been selling off overnight with Brent and WTI dropping 1.2%. API inventories rose 4.8 mmbbls reversing some of the recent declines. OPEC speculation lingers in the background with Russia apparently favouring a freeze rather than a cut. WTI may be active through the morning around DOE inventories. Whichever direction it exits its current $49-$50 range could set the trend for coming days.

Today brings more earnings reports headlined by Boeing in the morning and Tesla‎ Motors in the afternoon. Twitter could also be active today with the potential for more takeover rumours and speculation ahead of tomorrow’s earnings report which it moved up to the morning from the usual afternoon time.
Chart Signals
Chart Signals: NDAQ 100, USD, MXN  and Oil rolling over while EUR bounces back

Signs of distribution in indices have been building for a while but buying climaxes in the US NDAQ 100 and the US Dollar index suggest a trend change may be underway. Oil also has a key support test underway where a downturn could be signalled. MXN starting to fall again suggests the Trump campaign may be regaining momentum. With USD easing, EUR is bouncing back a bit.

North American and European Indices

US 30 has dropped into the 18,080 to 18,150 range.  Lower highs below a falling 50-day average and RSI still stuck under 50 indicates distribution. Next potential support near 18,000 then 17,915 a Fibonacci level and the bottom of a descending triangle.

US NDAQ 100 looks like it may have completed a bull trap peak falling back toward 4,870 after a an attempt to break out over 4,900 failed. Lower highs in the RSI indicate upward momentum weakening and a downturn pending. Next potential support at the 50-day average near 4,815 followed by 4,740.

US SPX 500 continues to turn downward with the index falling back toward 2,135 having once again failed to retake 2,150 the rising neckline of a head and shoulders top. RSI failing at 50 and falling confirms momentum turning downward with next potential support near 2,100 where a round number, 23% Fibonacci retracement and the flat pattern neckline all converge.

UK 100 has fallen back under 7,000 toward 6,950 with the low end of the current trading channel near 6,925. RSI sliding back under 50 indicates momentum turning downward. Next potential support on a breakdown near 6,900 and the 50-day average followed by 6,800.

Germany 30 is starting to roll over again falling back from 10,740 toward 10,640 after failing to overcome 10,800 resistance. RSI also starting to fall suggesting upswing weakening. Next support possible at the 50-day average near 10,555.

Commodities

Gold is consolidating recent gains in the $1,270 to $1,276 area above its 200-day average and below $1,282 resistance. RSI climbing toward 50 confirms downward pressure easing and base building underway.

Crude Oil WTI is rolling over and has big support tests underway at $49.00 for the price and 50 on the RSI. Failures there would signal a top in place and a downturn underway with next potential support near $48.05 then $47.45. Successful tests would keep the underlying uptrend intact with next resistance near $50.00.

FX

US Dollar Index failed to hold above 99.00 and reversed course in what looks like a shooting star or buying climax. Today the index has slipped back toward 98.50. RSI remains overbought so a downward correction possible with next potential support near 98.10 then 97.55.

USDJPY has settled back into the 104.00 to 104.30 area after a recent run at 105.00 round number and Fibonacci resistance failed. RSI indicates upward momentum flattening out. Initial support in a downturn possible near 103.20.

EURUSD has regained $1.0900 and appears to have a trading bounce underway to ease an oversold RSI. Recently trading near $1.0930, it really needs to retake $1.1000 to suggest this is any more than an upward trading correction. Downside support appears near $1.0845.

EURGBP has stabilized in the 0.8900 to 0.9000 area recently trading near 0.8940. It’s unclear if this represents a higher low and pause within an ongoing uptrend or the first rest stop within an emerging downtrend but the longer it remains below 0.9000 the more likely a top in place.

GBPUSD has climbed back up toward $1.2200 and back into a symmetrical triangle after a breakdown attempt failed near $1.2090 on Tuesday. RSI suggests downward pressure levelling off. Initial rebound resistance possible near $1.2275 then $1.2325.

USDCAD remains in an uptrend with the rising pair supported by a rising RSI. The $1.3310 breakout point has emerged as support with the pair advancing on the $1.3360 to $1.3380 area with next potential resistance near $1.3375 then $1.3465.

CADUSD continues to struggle with $0.7500 which has become new resistance following a breakdown. RSI pointing downward confirms distribution. Next potential support levels near $0.7465 then $0.7410 a Fibonacci level.

USDMXN is testing the top of an 18.45 to 19.65 range where it has been base building. RSI holding 40 indicates recent selloff was a correction within a bigger uptrend that may be resuming. Next resistance possible near 19.00 and the 50-day average.

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