Blackberry, Bank of Japan and holiday trading

This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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Market Insights

Blackberry, Bank of Japan and holiday trading

Stock markets around the world have gone into holiday mode. US index futures, the FTSE and the Dax are all trading pretty much flat, while the Nikkei rose 0.5%.

Monday’s developments have had more of an impact on currencies than stocks.‎ Terrorist attacks in Turkey, Switzerland and especially Germany along with ongoing questions about the health of Italy’s banks have weighed on the Euro today.

Blackberry shares could attract attention today after the company reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.02 beating the $0.00 street estimate.  Sales were below expectations again, however, at $301M below street $329M. For the Fiscal year ending in February, the company raised its non-GAAP EPS outlook to a profit from $0.00 to ($0.05), Q4 non-GAAP EPS is expected at breakeven. Gross margin percentage was a record 67%.

Blackberry management indicated it is now a mobile security software company which has boosted margins to record levels. The growth of mobile communications and devices continues to create new opportunities for the company such as its recent deal with Ford and move into supporting driverless automotive technology. 

The US Dollar is up following positive comments about the US job market from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The US Electoral College confirmed the election of Donald Trump and Mike Pence as President and Vice President. Despite the big campaign to block their election only a couple of Republican electors‎ tried to switch and we’re replaced. Interestingly, a number of Democratic electors tried to cast votes for Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton and we’re convinced to to otherwise or replaced LOL

The Japanese Yen has dropped back following the! Ank of Japan meeting the last big monetary policy event of the year. The bank maintained interest rates and QE indicating the economy has started to improve. Governor Kuroda indicated despite bond yields rising in other countries they have no plans to allow Japanese yields to rise under their yield curve management program which the street saw as dovish.

WTI crude oil is up 0.4% today while Brent is up ‎1.0% and copper is flat. In resource currency action, CAD is steady, while NOK, AUD and NZD are down slightly.

Chart Signals: Significant tests underway for EUR and JPY as Sterling slides and USD rallies

The main online trading academy suggests action today remains centred on currency markets. The USD index has broken out putting pressure on other currencies and sending EUR and JPY toward significant support tests. Meanwhile, GBP and gold have been declining again. Crude oil is on the rebound boosting CAD, while indices are flat to positive but unable to overcome resistance hurdles like 20,000 for the US 30 and 5,000 for the US NDAQ 100.

North American and European Indices

US 30 is back up above 19,900 and taking another run at the 20,000 round number where it may continue to struggle with resistance with RSI overbought and indicating upward momentum flattening out. Next measured resistance on a breakout near 19,230.

US SPX 500 continues to trend sideways trading between 2,235 and 2,275 digesting recent gains. The index has been trading near 2,270 with next resistance on a breakout near a measured 3,315 with next support near 2,220 a Fibonacci level.

US NDAQ 100 is still in an uptrend attracting support above its 2,900 breakout point with RSI confirming the uptick in momentum. Initial resistance remains in place near 4,970 followed by the 5,000 round number.

UK 100 remains under accumulation, rallying up off the 7,000 round number and advancing on 7,040 with next potential resistance near 7,070 then 7,110. Rising RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.

Germany 30 is still bumping up against channel resistance near 11,445 with more possible near 11,500 with an overbought RSI indication potential for a pause or correction. Initial support possible near 11,415 then 11,400 in a pullback.

Commodities

Gold has settled back toward $1,130 the centre of an emerging $1,120 to $1,140 base building range. RSI remains really oversold so a trading bounce possible.  Next upside resistance near $1,155 with next downside support near $1,100.

Crude Oil WTI remains under accumulation still rallying up off $50.00 with support rising toward $51.55 and the pair advancing on $52.50 with next potential resistance near $53.20 then $54.35 and $55.00.

FX

US Dollar Index is breaking out today, clearing 103.20 to signal the start of a new upleg with next measured resistance possible near 104.00 on trend. Support rises toward 103.00 from 102.40. 

USDJPY has a nice rebound underway climbing from near 116.50 toward 118.15 but it has been unable to overcome resistance near 118.60. An overbought RSI and negative divergence suggest upward momentum peaking and a correction possible. Initial support near 117.80 then 117.20 in a pullback with next resistance on a breakout near the 120.00 round number.

EURUSD is retesting $1.0360 which could end in a double bottom or another breakdown. A head and shoulders bottom in the RSI suggests downward momentum may have peaked and a bounce possible with initial resistance near $1.0400 then $1.0480. On a breakdown, next measured support appears near $1.0240.

EURGBP is holding steady near 0.8400 trading between 0.8380 and 0.8420 as it continues to consolidate in a Fibonacci channel between 0.8260 and 0.8460.

GBPUSD is breaking down as it drifts lower, taking out its 50-day average near $1.2410 which has become resistance and falling toward the $1.2310 to $1.2350 area with next potential support near $1.2275 then $1.2115. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downtrend accelerating.

USDCAD has started to backslide after running into resistance near $1.3435 well short of the $1.3500 round number. RSI may be peaking near 60 a sign of a downtrend. The pair has slipped toward $1.3410 with next support possible near $1.3390 then $1.3340 near the 50-day average.

CADUSD has found some support near $0.7430 a higher low above $0.7410 a Fibonacci level while RSI has stabilized near 40 a sign of an emerging uptrend. It needs to retake $0.7500 to signal an upturn with next resistance after that near $0.7550.