Leger poll shows huge Conservative lead

Another poll this morning, this time from Leger, showing a huge Conservative lead, Liberals in abysmal terrority. By all appearances, the government has wind in their sails, they appear utterly bulletproof on the scandal front, it’s all going their way. Conversely, the Liberals are bordering on historic lows, any measure one chooses, it’s pure bad, fueling the legitimate questioning of wanting an election. We can all agree on the appearances, what the "snapshot" is telling us, who has the momentum and who has the anchor. And yet…

If you caught Question Period yesterday, you saw Tim Powers make an appearance. The topic was election speculation, namely the stronger language coming from the NDP, less likely they will support the budget. Powers reaction, was one of disappointment, you could see it, he said it, unless you believe it a ruse to look apprehensive when really hawkish, quite telling. Have you noticed, this latest ramp up in the polls for the Conservatives hasn’t come with the usual bravado? My memory is clear, in the past, any hint of momentum and Conservatives instantly gloat, taunt, puff out their chest and yell from the rafters "BRING IT ON!" I see little evidence of past posture now, no matter the anecdotal reference. In fact, my read of body language tells me unequivocally that the Conservatives really don’t want an election, they genuinely would prefer to govern rather than go to an election. Powers another example of apparent hesitation.

It is understandable why the Conservatives wouldn’t want an election if it would merely reinforce the status quo. Trouble is, these poll numbers represent the biggest swing for the government since the Dion coalition, a sustained move, on the cusp of majority, targeting certain seats, it looks within grasp. Heck, EKOS has put the Conservatives ahead in Toronto, TWICE now in the last three offerings. We are almost at unprecedented regional potential, and I’m sorry but I still don’t see any real enthusiasm. Ready, of course, laying the groundwork for a call, absolutely, preferred, not sensing it in the least.

Posture is everything, rhetoric just that. I would submit, something doesn’t quite jive here, the Conservatives obviously see some pitfalls that the polls aren’t addressing or reading properly. These Conservatives poll more than any in history, they know the mood, shifts, potentials, down to a microscopic level. With all this data available, it is curious that the Conservatives don’t seem to share the euphoria that polls possibly present. Here it is Conservatives, right there in front of you, within your grasp, look poised to roll over the Liberals, and people like Powers still look sullen when processing the fact the NDP apparently backing away from budget support. It is fair to say the numbers won’t get any better, fair to see this budget won’t have to make tough choices, it will be attractive, and still the macho taunts are absent. Why? Why, the break from the pattern seen previously? To say it is a clever strategy to look "kicking and screaming" while quietly wanting one, doesn’t pass the smell test for here.

I think it all speaks volumes…

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