Oyetimes interview with Politicalbaaba on state elections in India

This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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Voting in two states Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir have begun this week in India. The results of the five phase voting will be declared on Dec. 23. After Bhartiya Janata Party’s thumping win in Lok Sabha polls, the party also bagged two states which went to polls in October in Maharashtra and Haryana. The party is upbeat about repeating its performance in these two states.

We have today with us Politicalbaaba, one of top bloggers on Indian politics and elections, to discuss about Jharkhand elections.

Sara: What do you think are the main issues in these elections?

Politicalbaaba: In Jharkhand the main issue is stability. The state was created in 2000 and it has always witnessed coalition governments. This has led to a lot of instability as partners have been fighting with each other over ministries. Corruption is rampant in Jharkhand with ex chief minister Madhu Koda serving a jail sentence. This is the magnitude of corruption. Development is a key issue as the state has lagged behind other newly created states in leading economic indicators despite being rich in mineral resources. 

In Jammu & Kashmir the main issue is development. People are fed up of the dynastic politics of the Abdullah family in the state like they were fed up of the dynastic politics of the Gandhis at the Center. People of the state want change as evident from the heavy (72%) polling witnessed in the first phase of elections. Terrorism has cast a shadow on the development of the state and impacted its tourism potential. People want to join the mainstream Indian politics after years of disenchantment with the Center. Article 370 is a big issue in the elections and is dear to the heart of Kashmiris. BJP in Lok Sabha poll campaign had advocated abrogation of the article. However since it is a sensitive issue it has taken a soft stand on it in the state election campaign and says it is open for debate on the issue.

Sara: Who are the main players in these state elections?

Politicalbaaba: Both state as well as national parties are strong in both these states. In Jharkhand the main players are Bhartiya Janata Party, Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. The smaller players like Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United have formed an alliance with the Congress. All Jharkhand Students Union has formed an alliance with BJP. Estranged BJP leader Babulal Marandi’s party Jharkhand Vikas Morcha is also vying for the tribal votes. The main fight is triangular between BJP, Congress and JMM. BJP has not announced its CM candidate and is banking on Modi jadoo to sail them through. In the. Lok Sabha elections held in May 2014 BJP had steeped the state by bagging 12 out of 14 seats.

In Jammu and Kashmir the fight is four cornered between ruling National Conference, Mufti Mohammed Saeed’s People’s Democratic Party, BJP and Congress. There are a few fringe players as well like Panther’s Party and People’s Conference which has been formed by separatist leader Sajjad Lone. Anti incumbency against National Conference govt. has resulted in a direct fight between the PDP and BJP. In Lok Sabha elections in May 2016, both BJP and PDP bagged 3 seats each. 

Sara: Will the Modi factor work for BJP in these elections?

Politicalbaaba: Modi is the undisputed and tallest leader of BJP today. BJP won the central elections entirely due to his campaign. We have seen that in state elections of Haryana as well as Maharashtra held last month, BJP didn’t name it’s chief ministerial candidates. Modi held rallies extensively in these states and BJP sought votes on Modi’s development plank. In both the states BJP won. The same formula is being allied in Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir in these elections. Modi is holding big rallies and requesting people to vote for development. Though local issues do play a role in state elections, Modi factor will be the key distinguishing factor between winning and losing parties.

Sara: What does this election mean for people of Jammu & Kashmir?

Politicalbaaba: For the first time in many years people have come out in large numbers to vote (72% in phase I). This implies two things, one there is huge resentment against the National Conference and Congress rule and people want change, secondly, they are fed up of the disturbance in the valley and want to join mainstream India. They want development like other states, they want industries to be set up so that their unemployed youth get jobs, they want peace and security so that tourism flourishes. Many separatists are also participating in the democratic process. Successful peaceful elections will be a big slap on the face of separatists.

Sara: Who do you feel will form the govt. in these two states?

In Jharkahnd, BJP appears strong and is expected to continue with its strong performance in the Lok Sabha polls. People want stable govt. and for the first time in history of the state they are likely to give a clear mandate. Congress performance will deteriorate in line with its downfall nationally. JMM will also get lesser seats this time as even tribals would vote for development. My estimates (as I have posted on my blog) is that BJP will get 49 seats, JMM 13, Congress 11, JVM 3 and others 5 in an assembly of 81 seats.

In Jammu & Kashmir, there is a close fight between PDP and BJP. BJP for the first time is in reckoning in the state which has majority Muslim population. Out of 87 seats, 47 seats are in Kashmir (Muslim dominated) and 40 seats are in Jammu / Leh (Hindu dominated). BJP strategy is to sweep Jammu region, get a few seats in Kashmir and form a govt. with support of Sajjad Lone. My estimate is that it will be a hung house with PDP as the largest party with 35 seats. BJP will be second with 30 seats, National Conference (8), Congress (7), Sajjad Lone’s party (5) and Panthers Party (2) out of total 87 seats. Sajjad Lone may hold the keys to govt. formation. PDP may form govt. with help of Congress and Sajjad Lone. Alternatively, BJP could form govt. with the help of National Conference, Sajjad Lone and Panthers Party. PDP being the single largest party definitely will have the momentum.

Politicalbaaba runs a popular blog on Indian politics and elections www.politicalbaaba.wordpress.com. It has been nominated by The Guardian as one of the online voices providing an alternative view of India and the general elections. author runs a blog author runs a blog www.politicalbaaba.wordpress.com.