Taking the Fatwa Seriously

This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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As the deadline for Iran’s interim nuclear deal gets closer to 20 July, anxiety has been rising among journalists covering the venue for the talks, now reaching their highest level since Iranian President Hassan Rouhani took power.

The anxiety has affected foreign diplomats associated with the talks of the so-called P5+1 Group with Iran, but these are not as implicated in the negotiations as Iranian Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif, EU Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton and US Secretary of State John Kerry.

Kerry, who came for a day meeting’s with his counterparts on July 13 in Vienna, extended his stay for an extra day in order to “push Iran” into limiting its nuclear programme, still at the core of the discussions between the two sides.

Having planned to leave for Egypt to help with the Egyptian proposal on a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, Kerry cancelled the trip at the last minute and instead stayed in Vienna on Tuesday for the continuation of his talks with Zarif.

These have indicated, less than a week before reaching the deadline, the need for further talks before signing a comprehensive deal.

Rouhani’s brother, Hussein Feridon, who as special envoy and aide to the president came to Vienna on July 13, also left Austria for Tehran, perhaps to brief the president and Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei about the meetings. As a result, by 15 July it seemed the most important talks were over, unless Iran makes a drastic change in the last few days.

The journalists with Iran’s state media who have travelled with the country’s negotiators since Rouhani became president a year ago talked off the record about the fatigue of the back-and-forth talks and the high expectations from Zarif, who could not go home on Sunday with empty hands.

As much as Zarif rocked the show six months ago in Geneva, now Kerry stole the show from Zarif and became a popular figure among Iranian and other media representatives in Vienna. Hanging out with him in the hotel lobby, watching the football, or having breakfast with him, all made him very popular, especially because of his honest and straightforward press conference with the media shortly before leaving for Washington.

The continuation of the nuclear talks needs Ayatollah Khamenei’s permission, and being aware of this Kerry impressed his Iranian audience by talking respectfully about Iran’s supreme leader at his news conference.

The US’s acceptance of Iran’s supreme leader’s religious ruling, or fatwa, against the country’s seeking to obtain a nuclear bomb was extraordinary. “We take Ayatollah Khamenei’s fatwa seriously. A fatwa issued by a cleric is an extremely powerful statement about intent. Our need is to codify it. We can’t take any declaration [as enough] – because that is not what a negotiation or nuclear agreement is about. It’s about verifiable specific steps by which parties disagreeing can agree,” Kerry said.

Kerry’s positive press conference may mean that an agreement has been reached with Iran to extend the interim agreement for a short period of time. But what the Iranians are expecting from the nuclear deal is the removal of all sanctions and full engagement and bilateral relations with the Western countries, which seems impossible in the short term.

While reaching a comprehensive agreement is very unlikely to happen before the deadline, the overall message is that no matter what Iran needs a deal. Whether that means coming back to the table if there is a failure or continuing to draft an agreement if there is an extension of the interim agreement, a deal is possible and this is what the public wants to hear in Iran.

What the Iranian public may not know is that even if there is a deal the work is not over and Iran will have to comply with the terms and begin working to improve the country’s administration so it can realise the full benefits of a deal.

Iran’s economy will not improve overnight as a result of a deal, and it will not become a responsible regional power overnight either.

Each scenario, whether the talks fail, are extended or finalised, benefits Iran because the bottom line is that the sanctions are removed. This can’t be pursued unless a comprehensive deal has been reached with the West, or, better, with the US.

Kerry at a press briefing on Tuesday right before leaving for Washington told the media that “these are tough negotiations. The Iranians are strong in their positions, and so are we. Both are in good faith.”

Kerry called Zarifa “tough negotiator who knows what he wants for his country.” He said he was going to Washington to brief US President Barack Obama and members of Congress about the meetings he had had with the Iranians.

While according to Kerry an extension of the talks is likely, by talking respectfully of Khamenei’s fatwa he has left the door open for Iran to continue the talks in the near future.

“Diplomacy is our preference,” Kerry said, adding “I want Iran to know and the supreme leader to know that the US believes that Iran has the right to have a peaceful nuclear programme under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The figure of the centrifuges is not new. It reflects Iran’s current ambitions with regard to its long-term nuclear power programme.”

One thing at least was clarified: the Obama administration prefers diplomacy to confrontation with Iran.

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