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EKOS poll shows lowest Conservative total since 2008 election
Category: Columns Published on Thursday, 02 September 2010 17:56 Written by Steve Val
The new EKOS offers quite a bit of intriguing information. Here's a few things that stick out:
- LOWEST Conservative total since 2008 election.
- highest Liberal total since the spring, still not great, but much improved.
- noticeable dropoff for the NDP. Now polling in the single digits in Quebec,mirroring what Harris Decima found just last week. Registry?
- Greens actually 3.5% ahead of NDP in Quebec, only 4% behind in Ontario
- Liberals gaining in Ontario, at both the NDP and Conservative expense.
- Liberals at 39% in Ontario. Haven't seen this level for some time, represents big seat swing
- Conservatives losing more educated voters, base looking more and more like a "Deliverance" extra convention
- Ignatieff's app/disapproval numbers slightly improved over summer, more people have negative opinion of Harper. Ignatieff still has large "not sure" score, opinion hasn't cemented
- Layton's app/disapproval still best, but trendline bad, erosion on app, growing dis. Again, registry?
- Harper's app/disapproval getting worse.
Basically, it's hard to get terribly excited about the Liberals still below 30%. But, since everything is relative in politics, the appearance of momentum is there. What's important, the developing narratives find further oxygen, which can lead to more gains.
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