Angus Reid poll Canadians not concerned with Turmel’s past

Angus Reid poll on the Turmel affair offers a bit of everything, depending on how you spin the results. 

Bottomline, the horserace numbers show little NDP erosion in the wake of the leadership issue, so that should give dippers some comfort. As well, only 41% of people are concerned about Turmel’s past ties, 51% are not. On the face of it, no issues for the NDP, numbers solid, a bare majority not concerned. I suspect we will see these numbers highlighted to support the "witchhunt" argument. 

On the other hand, I can point to a couple findings which suggest potential problems. I see this issue of the NDP flirtation with separatists- both in terms of people and MORE importantly policy- as a festering issue that will be on the political radar for sometime. With that backdrop in in mind, the overall numbers are somewhat skewed by the Quebec offset. For example, in Ontario 49% are concerned, only 44% are not. This result feeds the argument that any fallout is more an "outside Quebec" concern for the NDP, which is the central issue from my perspective. 

In addition, while overall numbers suggest less concern, there is a strange disconnect on whether Turmel should stay on or not. On this clear question, 45% think she should resign, 35% do not. Again, take the Quebec numbers out of the equation, you see an almost 2 to 1 finding in Ontario, 49% want Turmel to resign, a lowly 29% think she should stay. British Columbia 49% to 21%, despite respondents not expressing much concern. These numbers suggest, that outside of Quebec, Turmel has some serious credibility issues, which is very concerning for a shiny new leader. 

This is a "one of those" polls, wherein you can cobble together various conflicting arguments. For example, I think the NDP’s "footsie" routine is a problem, one that the Liberals can provide a robust federalist counter to. This poll does nothing to dissuade me from that perspective, Turmel looks quite vulnerable, and in vote rich Ontario, the past ties aren’t a "big whoop" consideration. It’s an open argument.