Canadian Election 2011: To avoid Harper majority Liberals must hold Ontario

The latest batch of polls are so fluid, almost every scenario is possible. One thing is becoming clear though, whether you’re a NDP or Liberal supporter, if you want Harper gone, then it is imperative the Liberals hold in Ontario. The latest Harris Decima poll offers an almost optimal scenario for Harper to be replaced:

The Conservatives are at 35 per cent support nationally, with the NDP at 30 per cent and the Liberals at 22 per cent.

The results indicate the New Democrats have doubled their support since the campaign began late last month — thanks mainly to huge gains among Quebecers and women voters.

The poll has the NDP with a 20-point lead over the Bloc Quebecois — 42 per cent to 22 per cent — and leading the Conservatives by one point among female respondents.

It also suggests significant gains in B.C., where the NDP is two points behind the Tories and 21 points ahead of the Liberals.

The key battleground of Ontario remains a rare bright spot for the Liberals. Michael Ignatieff’s party led there, supported by 34 per cent of respondents compared with 33 per cent for the Tories and 25 for the NDP.

I sense there is the possibility that some in Ontario will flock to the Conservatives, if the NDP looks poised to take government. Call it hunch, a worry, but if the Liberal vote collapses further in Ontario, I suspect more go right than left. It is beyond crucial that the Liberal vote holds in Ontario and HD offers some reason for optimism. We will never figure out the vote splitting math, frankly these individual seat predictors, I’m putting ZERO stock in. 

What needs to happen is close to the HD poll. The NDP surge in QC, which I believe is now cemented, plus a challenge in British Columbia more and more probable, as well as the aforementioned Liberal "hold" in Ontario. If we can’t check off all three boxes, then it may just be advantage Harper. There will be no orange wave sweeping across Ontario, at worst it will cause some backlash or weird splits, a few NDP gains not enough to offset the negatives.

I am expecting to be surprised when the polls close. Forget the individual seat predictors, it’s pure voodoo with such a turbulent electorate. What is known, the paths to victory, and I believe what I’ve laid out is the only realistic scenario, so let’s hope it shakes out as such.

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