The “Islamic State” Expands Across the Middle East?

This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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The Islamic State’s notable expansion in Iraq and Syria; particularly, after it announced the establishment of a state and installing its leader Abu BakralBaghdadi as the Muslim’s Caliph, raises several questions about the organization’s capability to expand into other areas in the Middle East and allying with other jihadist organizations; especially, amid the latter’s division toward the organization’s adopted policies and objectives. Some have rejected these policies and announced their rebellion against them while others have supported them; particularly, with regards to reviving the Islamic Caliphate, which is considered the supreme objective towards which all varying jihadists currents aspire.

Supporting currents:

Some jihadist organizations across the Middle East began announcing their support for the Islamic State; formerly, known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) – without joining the organization; such as, alQaeda in Yemen and some groups affiliated with alQaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). AQIM judge for the central region Abu Abdullah Othman alAsemi announced his comrades declare their advocacy for what he called mujahideen among the Islamic State organization in Iraq. Further, alAsemi noted his comrades’ “desire to establish friendly ties between you and us” referring to his organization and the Islamic State. Meanwhile, alAsemi strongly criticized other organizations; especially, alQaeda, for not supporting the Islamic State. Moreover, Jund alKhilafah (Soldiers of the Caliphate) recently announced its split from AQIM and pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Their leader Khalid Abu Sulaiman noted that “alQaeda and its branch in the Maghreb have strayed from the right path”.

In addition, a number of local organizations in the Middle East announced their support for the Islamic State and are now providing it with assistance. Ahrar alSunna Baalbek Brigades considers itself an extension of the Islamic State in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Ansar alSharia Shura Council physically mobilizes and preaches in support of the Islamic State while Ansar alIslam support the organization in Gaza. Such organizations that have announced their support for the Islamic State could possibly transform into arms of the organization in the near future. Empathy and support within the jihadist community, in most cases, quickly transforms from cooperation to allegiance similar to what happened with alQaeda following its establishment.

Multiple factors: 

Several factors have contributed to the Islamic State’s expansion in the Middle East; most notably:

1. The Islamic State’s unprecedented successes: The organization succeeded in controlling areas with sprawling ends across the borders of two states and announced the establishment of the Islamic Caliphate. With this, the organization has achieved, in a brief time,what jihadist currents have failed at over the past 30 years. Therefore, some organizations find that the Islamic State is more worthy of support and advocacy than other organizations who have achieved accomplishments on the ground.
2. The decline of competing organizations in the Middle East; most notably, alQaeda under the leadership of Ayman alZawahiri whose influence over affiliated organizations in the region has weakened. As a result, alQaeda’s ability to influence the developments of events and becoming an important figure in the regional scene has shrunk in comparison to the Islamic State.
3. Declaring the establishment of the Islamic Caliphate, which is the primary objective to which jihadist currents aspire in a manner that pushed them to support the Islamic State and split from other organizations that have failed in achieving this objective.

Possible ramifications: 

Undoubtedly, the Islamic State’s expansion in the Middle East through some jihadist organizations joining it and others supporting it will impose some varying ramifications; most notable:

1. Effectively contributing in providing the organization with funding and combatants in addition to creating a state of mobilization in the jihadist community across the Middle East advocating the Islamic State and providing it with moral support in face of the forming international coalition to stop its advancement. On the short run, the organization will benefit from this. On the long run, the Islamic State will, through this support, enjoy wide influence across the Middle East, which it could utilize in the future in the event that it enters a conflict with several political regimes across the region. Therefore, the Islamic State will transform into a transnational threat in the future.
2. The organization’s control over the map of jihadist currents throughout the world;especially, after it transformed its ideological references to that of most jihadist organizations in the world; particularly, as strongest jihadist organization capable of implementing its policies is that which imposes its ideas and concepts on the other organizations.
3. The formation of a jihadist belt in the Middle East in a manner which could threaten all political regimes if the Islamic State’s expansion in the region continues as is; especially, as it will encourage loyal jihadist organizations to intensify their attacks against the states in which they reside to topple political regimes, which they view as secular and opposing Islam; therefore, they should be eliminated.

Finally, it is expected that the Islamic State’s expansion in the Middle East and its success in controlling other areas will increase the number of jihadist organizations supporting it. This will increase the possibility of an outbreak of a new wave of violence; particularly, as most of these organizations will seek to adhere to the Islamic State’s violent concepts as it is the organization most capable of implementing its objectives; especially, after it announced the establishment of the Islamic Caliphate.

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