The nationals numbers show a large 4.3% narrowing in one day, which now means Nanos is more in line with the Harris Decima poll trend:
Cons 39.8% (42.3%)
Libs 30.2% (28.4%)
NDP 16.5% (16.4%)
Greens 4% (3.8%)
The Ontario numbers are quite striking, for a number of reasons. I can’t recall such strength in numbers with both the main parties concurrently, a VERY worrying sign for the NDP, the squeeze apparently on:
You see a very nice, established trendline for the Liberals in Ontario, as they reach a pretty impressive tally. Of note, Harper was in Ontario all day yesterday scaring citizens, while Ignatieff was on the east coast. A 7% swing in one day, the Liberals gain at both the Conservative and NDP expense. It’s fair to mention here that the NDP are below 15%, they can’t seem to find any traction, eclipsed by the Liberals. In terms of vote splitting, this could be an important dynamic, raising higher the already lofty Liberals seat translation. Let’s see if it holds, but all the pollsters have shown an improving Liberal fortune in Ontario, so something appears to be afoot, for the time being anyway.
The Liberals are simply dreadful in Quebec, so bad their numbers are a drag on the national presentation. Here we have a poll with Liberals well above 40% in Ontario, and we still barely break 30% nationally. Ignatieff is set to roll into Quebec today I believe, which is good, because the NDP nipping at our heels, mired in the teen routine, isn’t going to cut it. I appreciate the Liberals can only hope to pickup a few seats, optimally, but there is no reason we can’t get back to a more respectable showing. People forget, the Liberals were once statistically tied with the Bloc in Quebec under Ignatieff, over 30%, so there is an audience available. I would also add our platform should be a good sell in Quebec.
All in all, the Liberals have to like the trend, the Conservatives a bit nervous.
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