Canada Votes: Latest Nanos Poll Digestion

The gap still very significant, but a large move in the Nanos poll. In addition, for the first time in over a year a pollster pegs Liberal support about 40% in Ontario, now ahead of the Conservatives in the volatile province. 

The nationals numbers show a large 4.3% narrowing in one day, which now means Nanos is more in line with the Harris Decima poll trend:

Cons 39.8% (42.3%)
Libs 30.2% (28.4%)
NDP 16.5% (16.4%)
Greens 4% (3.8%)

A 13.8% lead is now down to 9.6%, must have been quite a day of polling yesterday. Still a huge Conservative lead, but there are signs of life for the Liberals.

The Ontario numbers are quite striking, for a number of reasons. I can’t recall such strength in numbers with both the main parties concurrently, a VERY worrying sign for the NDP, the squeeze apparently on:


You see a very nice, established trendline for the Liberals in Ontario, as they reach a pretty impressive tally. Of note, Harper was in Ontario all day yesterday scaring citizens, while Ignatieff was on the east coast. A 7% swing in one day, the Liberals gain at both the Conservative and NDP expense. It’s fair to mention here that the NDP are below 15%, they can’t seem to find any traction, eclipsed by the Liberals. In terms of vote splitting, this could be an important dynamic, raising higher the already lofty Liberals seat translation. Let’s see if it holds, but all the pollsters have shown an improving Liberal fortune in Ontario, so something appears to be afoot, for the time being anyway.

The Liberals are simply dreadful in Quebec, so bad their numbers are a drag on the national presentation. Here we have a poll with Liberals well above 40% in Ontario, and we still barely break 30% nationally. Ignatieff is set to roll into Quebec today I believe, which is good, because the NDP nipping at our heels, mired in the teen routine, isn’t going to cut it. I appreciate the Liberals can only hope to pickup a few seats, optimally, but there is no reason we can’t get back to a more respectable showing. People forget, the Liberals were once statistically tied with the Bloc in Quebec under Ignatieff, over 30%, so there is an audience available. I would also add our platform should be a good sell in Quebec.

All in all, the Liberals have to like the trend, the Conservatives a bit nervous.

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Article viewed at: Oye! Times at www.oyetimes.com

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2 Comments

  1. it’s a rolling average, so it’s not quite a one-day jump. furthermore, you must keep the regional moe’s in mind. must. must. must.

  2. look at the trendline in the maritimes over the last few weeks. it’s preposterous, right? well, there’s a ten percent margin of error. that’s huge. it’s so huge that the trendline is nearly useless.

    and in ontario? it’s close. that’s all we can say. the numbers might flip tomorrow, and it won’t be because of something somebody sacomment_ID, it’ll be because there’s a 6% margin of error.

    nanos polls tend to be more optimistic for liberals because they call cell phones and most polling companies only call home phones. how many people under 35 do you know that even *have* home phones? if you’re not calling cell phones nowadays, you’re ignoring the entire under-30 demographic.

    …but liberals shouldn’t be too optimistic. don’t be surprised if the numbers flip tomorrow or the next day, and don’t blame anybody for it if it happens.

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