Canada Election 2011: Nanos, Angus Reid and Leger Polls

A rash of polls this morning, with somewhat different results. NanosAngus Reid and Leger. One thing all agree on is that the NDP are doing quite well in Quebec, all show positive movement. Leger I find interesting for their Quebec results, but their online survey isn’t something I put much stock outside of the province. Angus Reid’s online survey does have a good track record, so I give it more credence. Nanos is one of my favourites, so when sifting through, I don’t treat all as equal, as others tend to. For myself, I key in on Nanos, EKOS, Angus Reid and Harris Decima. People will note, historically, Angus Reid one of the kinder pollsters for Conservative support, so there is no partisan consideration here, just an attempt to go with what I perceive as past reliability.

All the polls put the NDP in second in Quebec, Angus Reid 26%, both Nanos and Leger 24%, pretty heady numbers. The Liberals are in serious trouble in Quebec, no question, and it will need attention heading down the stretch. At the beginning of the campaign, there were prospects for Liberal pickups in Quebec, that seems less likely now, unless we capture attention. 

Quebec bolsters the NDP national numbers with all the pollsters. Angus Reid sees a national tie, a very new development for this outfit. The terrific result for the NDP comes with one caution, Angus Reid notes extremely soft support, although that isn’t really surprising if you have recently picked up voters. The conclusion with this poll, NDP a force, but precarious.

Nanos finds no such national surge for the NDP, if anything, outside of Quebec, the post debate bounce is waning. The NDP are below 2008 totals nationally, regionally in Ontario, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, all far more important to their overall fortunes. If you take Nanos as accurate, rather than a good NDP situation, they look vulnerable. One incredibly important point, while the NDP are doing well in Quebec, they have ZERO ground game by all accounts, relative to competition, a large factor. Couple that with soft Quebec support, and if these numbers don’t deliver, it’s not the rosy picture first blush suggests. In addition, best case scenario that I can decifer, the NDP might pickup up at 2-5 seats type result. You look at other regionals, and I see a net negative, so important to look at the NDP in balance.

For the Liberals, one region is intriguing. Despite daily ebbs and flows with Nanos, at no time have the Liberals dipped to 2008 levels in British Columbia, always marginal to significantly above. By contrast the NDP have consistently been below their 2008 total, so despite the large MOE with this province, a clear pattern has emerged. The Liberals could pick up a few seats in British Columbia. The Conservatives have shown some weakness, but there are plenty of NDP/Con battles, wherein a weaker NDP could work to their advantage as well. British Columbia is shaping up to be fascinating, heading down the final stretch.

Overall, NDP supporters have polls to crow about and that is important with a receptive media. The fact Nanos shows below 2008 totals is contradictory, and actually concerning for the NDP overall. Let’s just say it’s "fluid" to reconcile.

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1 Comment

  1. One must remember that polls represent voter sentiment at a point in time. There if voter sentiment changes quickly, party ratings are up or down sharply. That explains why the NDP is increasing in Quebec, the voters there are warming up to their platform.

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