National federal vote intention:
¤ 37.3% CPC
¤ 24.8% LPC
¤ 14.2% NDP
¤ 10.7% Green
¤ 9.9% BQ
¤ 3.0% other
Direction of government:
¤ 44.0% right direction
¤ 43.3% wrong direction ¤ 12.7% DK/NR
A 13.5% Conservative lead, close to their 2008 total, both the Liberals and NDP below their numbers. Of note, for the first time since last summer more Canadians think the government is moving in the right direction.
We see a large Conservative lead in Ontario, on the edge of the fluctuating high water mark, punching above 40%:
The NDP and Greens statistically tied, the Liberals at their low polling floor. Before anyone gets overly excited, this is the point where we need to remind people, that we’ve seen this dynamic before, it’s never held and it’s also flipped back wildly. Not discounting this result, just a caution that we need to see if the trend holds before panic is justified. EKOS does have a very good track record, but one poll is just that, so let’s wait for more. I note this tweet last night:
RobertFife: Ipsos pollster Darrell Bricker writes of Ekos poll: " We’ve got almost the same. No anomaly."
That really doesn’t mean much to me, apart from the fact it could provide the perceived statistically backing for the media to run wild with the changed dynamic. Nobody bothers to entertain past accuracy records, but that’s another story and it’s actually irrelevant, sadly, to how numbers are perceived. In other words, Ipsos does have similar results, making EKOS that much more concerning I suppose.
EKOS has the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in Quebec, 20% to 16%, another finding which I’m certainly sitting on before trying to translate.
The obvious search for "answers" leads right to attack ads, and just as important the blitz of EAP ads, congealing into an full on assault. Is EKOS evidence that the attack ads have worked? Quite possibly, but we’ve also seen previous offering showing no move while the ads have ran, so the jury is still out. Attack ads do work, but do they work over and over and over again? If people looked at the Dion era, you’d have seen "diminishing returns" with each subsequent salvo, some evidence that the effect waned over time. However, we have the ads, now we have a poll that shows a new political reality, of course people will connect the dots.
From the Liberal perspective, I would just carry on like we were on Thursday. I sense a party getting a compelling narrative together, on the issues we are pushing, polls also show a HIGHLY receptive audience, so don’t lose the plot. The ankle biter crowd, the bitter margins, take great pleasure in bad polls, but really that says more about them than their target, so ignore the background noise. Fair to point out, the government quickly contacted their membership to warn them not to believe EKOS, their own numbers don’t mirror.
Lets wait and see, and even if we see more evidence, remember we’ve been right here, these numbers, about a dozen times in the last few years. Everytime, outside of a writ, they’ve settled back, so that may well be the real wide angle shot to remember.
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