Canada Election 2011: Latest Ekos and Environics Polls

It’s sort of a weird sensation, as my own party entertains historically worrying scenarios, yet I’m fascinated by what is easily the most shocking polling I’ve seen since I started this blog. Earlier in the day Environics showed the NDP vaulting into second, more interesting from my perspective a stunning 41% in Quebec. Then later, not to be out done, EKOS delivers a result which has turned the world upside down. At this stage, digesting apparent partisan demise, I’m now fully focused on any scenario which denies Harper a majority, even better if we can cobble together a union that can run the country, even if it is Prime Minister Layton! (sweet lord, I said it without my sides erupting). It could all change, and I still suspect a thing or two, but the old Canadian order is surely challenged.

Environics gives CPC 39%, NDP 25%, Libs 22%. I call this a secondary poll, because with the sheer volume, for my purposes the more established track records get top billing. That said, the Quebec number for the NDP is also replicated by EKOS, furthering the evidence that YES, all bets are off in that province, we could well be witnessing the Bloc’s retreat, by the most unlikely of sources. If only the Liberals had listened to persistent pleas… oh sorry- see I am conflicted- but I’ll save that for post mortems. Anyways, EKOS gives the NDP 38.7% in Quebec, the Bloc 25%, similar to Environics, as the orange wave sweeps the province. The potential seat change math is electric.

Nationally:

¤ 33.7% CPC
¤ 23.7% LPC
¤ 28.0% NDP
¤ 7.2% Green
¤ 6.2% BQ
¤ 1.2% other

Chew on that for a moment, to we Liberals it’s like leather, but perhaps just as tough for the Cons. If EKOS is remotely accurate, then we could have 162 NDP/Liberal seats, with the NDP holding a mind numbing 100. I give the numbers just to help digest the reality, although I’d be VERY cautious here, particularly with the NDP rising now in Ontario, hard to ascertain true seat breakdowns. EKOS has the NDP leading in Quebec, Atlantic Canada and narrowing in on British Columbia (when I saw Harper playing defence on Vancouver Island, I suspected their internals revealed weakness).

I would classify the situation as extremely fluid, so I’m not prepared to seriously get on side with any scenario. The fact of the matter, no one has entertained these dynamics, so to think you can predict the ultimate shakeout is a bit silly. However, the NDP surge is VERY real, particularly in Quebec I think voters have moved and will stay, just a question of extent now. It’s the rest of the country that’s unclear, I’m expecting to be surprised election night. The Liberals are in a desperate way, worst case was last week, this is just a nightmare to be honest. But, there is time to rebound slightly, hold in Ontario, that is possible. It’s also possible Harper is on the cusp of majority, or he’s on the cusp of a career at the Fraser Institute. I’ll never stop hoping for the latter, so Jack be good, whatever, just hope for any scenario that doesn’t give ultimate power. As a student of Canadian politics this election is proving to be historic, which is quite the feat, given the assumptions heading in. It’s just a complete and utter stunner, that latent angst sparked, now running rampant, flipping the bird at the status quo. I will never stop appreciating that fact, it’s what gives a democracy oxygen.

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