This article was last updated on April 16, 2022
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Two polling heavyweights out today with different results, both conducted during the same time period. If you’re a Liberal, then EKOS acts as a powerful elixir just don’t look at the Nanos which actually gives the DUD the nod. What to make of it all? (see results below)
Perhaps an exercise in polls providing little clue to actual results? Here you have EKOS showing the Liberals moving into potential majority position, whereas Nanos would likely put the PC’s into power, a bigger disconnect we rarely see. EKOS shows no NDP bounce, which Nanos highlighted yesterday, only to see a slight ebb today. Additionally, when it comes to likely voters EKOS finds the Libs and PC’s do better, whereas the NDP falls to 19.3%.
We do see a consistent pattern with the two pollsters, Nanos tends to show little relative Green support, whereas Graves does, we saw this divergence federally as well. I find 1.2% for the Greens a bit low from Nanos, but EKOS at 7.3% also looks quite high, relative to what others are finding: Green support looks weak this election.
One thing I’ve noticed is that, with Nanos in particular, for all the talk of momentum, if you look at his graph it’s been pretty stable for the last three weeks. To this amateur, Nanos looks more statistical noise than any real trend (not withstanding results prior to September 11). In a more limited sense, EKOS also shows a fairly pedestrian trendline, which suggests a leveling out of support perhaps, after the big early moves in this campaign and pre-writ.
So in conclusion, NDP spoiler, NDP afterthought, Libs surging or losing and the DUD a DUD or a Premier. Alright then…
EKOS:
37.8% LPO
30.6% PC
22.7% NDP
7.3% Green
1.6% other
NANOS:
36.4% PC
35.6% LPO
25.7% NDP
1.2% Green
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