NDP’s honeymoon in Quebec continues

Eric lays out the historical picture to demonstrate why the NDP’s honeymoon in Quebec may persist longer than Harper’s rhetoric assumes. I largely agree with the analysis, but my opinion looks at the NDP circumstance from another perspective, but perhaps equally as daunting for the Liberal "renewal" prospects.

You’ll note in the G and M piece, that the examples largely center around one common denominator, that being power. Unlike most "honeymoon" scenarios, the NDP holds no real power, there is no reign, no era, and ultimately no real accountability. In my view, the fact the NDP doesn’t hold the levers of power only lessens the chance that they will quickly disappear in Quebec. There are some obvious exceptions, particularly in Quebec, but the NDP are in a very advantageous position in Quebec, they can fight against an unpopular Conservative government, without behing held to any real standard because they reside in opposition. People understand the NDP can’t deliver much, given their current role in Parliament, a majority is actually preferrable to the past minorities. With that common sense rationale self evident, I’m hard pressed to see how a "kick the bums out" mentality develops in Quebec? 

The only way the NDP collapse in Quebec is if they come across as amateurish and unprofessional. Should the NDP continue to champion Quebec issues- which they’ve already signalled will be a high priority- then these type of "honeymoon" conversations need to be looked at in a different light. Within a majority Parliament, dominated by another party, there will simply be few occasions wherein the NDP will receive blame that could lead to Quebecers turning in dramatic fashion. In other words, why would the honeymoon end, what issue would trigger a seismic change in Quebec, how can a powerless party so offend its demographic? Of course, NDP support is quite shallow in Quebec, it isn’t entrenched, traditional, some deep unshakeable affinity, but it also enjoys probable calm seas ahead due to circumstance. You have a mostly dead in the water Conservative government, a tired and tarnished Liberal Party and a completely decimated separatist option, so Quebec will remain fertile for the NDP, probability assumes this election isn’t a one off.

There are no absolutes here, but for Liberals, I think it best not to adopt the flippant mentality that Harper articulated and instead realize that this "honeymoon" scenario has built in advantages that are formidable. At the moment, I’m hard pressed to find any "triggers" that could lead to short term NDP implosion, apart from self inflicted wounds. I’m not suggesting the NDP can’t erode, but there is a certain arrogance that assumes they will quickly disappear from the Quebec political scene.

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