New EKOS Poll shows solid Conservative lead

The latest EKOS poll includes post budget findings, as they set the baseline for the election campaign. In line with this week’s Harris Decima poll, similar underlying theme to NANOS, EKOS shows a slightly narrowed, but statistically irrelevant 7 point lead for the Conservatives:

National federal vote intention:

¤ 35.3% CPC (up 1.2%)
¤ 28.1% LPC (up 2.4%)
¤ 14.2% NDP (down 2.2%)
¤ 10.6% Green (up .2%)
¤ 9.7% BQ
¤ 2.1% other

The Liberals enter the campaign where they were in 2008, the NDP 4 points lower, the Conservatives 3 lower. The Conservatives enjoy a 5 point in Ontario, the Bloc a gigantic advantage in Quebec.

NANOS pointed to some underlying weakness for the Conservatives. EKOS tends to confirm in one sense, as we see a sudden spike in the "direction of government" numbers:

Direction of country:

For context, the numbers were virtually identical two weeks ago, and we see no corresponding change in the direction of country findings. In fact, we are now seeing a disconnect between mood of country and attitude towards the government. It would appear EKOS supports the idea that Harper and company have taken a hit with the recent scandals.

A solid Conservative lead, but not enough for anyone to feel confident. It would appear the ad barrage bounce has stalled, and some evidence of a soft underbelly.

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