This article was last updated on April 16, 2022
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Can’t recall the last time we’ve seen such bizarre, conflicting trends, from two of the heavyweight pollsters. This morning Nanos came out with their poll, which showed the Conservatives have built up a "commanding 14 point lead", taken Friday to Sunday, suggested a worrying trend (outside of Ontario) for the Liberals. Now Harris Decima has just released their latest, taken Thursday to Sunday that shows the Liberals have cut the Conservative lead from 14 points a week ago to 7 points this week. In addition, Harris Decima shows Ignatieff starting to gain traction with voters:These results, compiled March 31-April 3, see the Conservatives with 35% support, the Liberals with 28%, the NDP 17%, the BQ 10% and the Greens 8%.
•In Quebec, the BQ remains well in front. Over the last two weeks, the BQ stands at 42%, to 20% for the Conservatives, 16% for the Liberals, 15% for the NDP, and 6% for the Greens. Over the latest week, the BQ holds 42% support, to 19% for the Liberals, 17% for the Conservatives, 15% for the NDP and 5% for the Greens.
•The Conservatives hold an 8 point lead in Ontario over the last two weeks. Here, they stand at 41%, to 33% for the Liberals, 17% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens. In the latest week, the Conservatives hold 43% support, to 34% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens.
•The Conservatives remain in front in BC. Over the last two weeks, the Conservatives are at 34%, to 28% for the NDP, 23% for the Liberals, and 13% for the Greens.
•The Conservatives remain the dominant party on the Prairies. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, they stand at 50%, to 22% for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP and 8% for the Greens. In Alberta, they stand at 56%, to 23% for the Liberals, 14% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens.
•The race is tight in Atlantic Canada. Here, the Conservatives are at 38%, to 36% for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP and 6% for the Greens.
Nanos shows the gap widening considerably, Harris Decima shows a decided narrowing in short order. Who to believe? I’m not going to venture a guess, let’s see if we get a more overriding trend, but at least for the Liberals some evidence that all the "good first week" talk isn’t just idle chatter.
Encouraging news for Ignatieff from Harris Decima:
Perhaps even more encouraging for the Liberals is the fact that their leader, Michael Ignatieff (while still having the highest "unfavourable" ratings of all of the five federal leaders) has improved his favourable ratings by 12 points since we last probed this question in February. Conversely, his principal rival, Stephen Harper has seen his unfavourable scores increase by almost as much (9 points)."
Interesting again, Nanos shows a flat trend for Ignatieff, Harper doing relatively well. Go figure.
So, it’s Conservatives way up, Liberals closing quickly then…
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