Poll Shows Tories Lead by 14-points in Ottawa South By-election

This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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A recently conducted poll result suggests that the upcoming by-elections could be upsetting for Liberals in an Ottawa South riding that is scheduled to vote on Aug. 1. The interactive voice response telephone survey conducted by Forum Research concluded that Progressive Conservative challenger, Matt Young, has a lead of almost 14-point over his Liberal opponent, John Fraser.

The poll sample included 589 registered adult voters of the riding, out of which a complete majority of 48 per cent reported to have decided to vote for Young, followed by a vote bank of 34 per cent in favor of Fraser. Consequently, 12 per cent of the sample inclined towards New Democrat candidate, Bronwyn Funiciello, leaving only five per cent voters in favor of Green party candidate, Taylor Howarth. The results of interactive poll conducted on July 24 are alleged to be accurate plus or minus four per cent, i.e. 19 times out of 20.

Pollster, Lorne Bozinoff, concluded that the poll results are hopeful for the Tories, asserting that “as much as there’s no done deal in politics, this looks like a done deal.” He added that “this would take a miracle to change this around at this point.” Bozinoff recalled a similar poll conducted by Forum on July 3, which had completely opposite result showing Liberals to stand ahead of the Tories with 42 per cent to 38 per cent lead at the time. Bozinoff admitted that “there’s been kind of a flip in the result” since that poll.