Gun Registry Numbers Are Moving

May 20, 2022 Steve Val Op-Ed's 0

This article was last updated on May 20, 2022

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Last week, some questioned the wisdom of the Liberals "wedge" play on the gun registry. The older polls were cited by commentators, to argue that there was no real upside from the Liberal perspective. I said at the time, that we needed new data, because the focus was sharpened and all this institutional support for the gun registry had probably moved the numbers. My gut instinct was that the debate was moving. With that in mind, a new gun registry poll, which for the first time in two years, shows significant movement on the issue:

A new poll suggests public opinion was shifting in favour of keeping the controversial long-gun registry, even before the RCMP issued its favourable evaluation last month.

The late August poll by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima indicates that 48 per cent of respondents thought it would be a bad idea to get rid of the registry, up from 42 per cent in April and 41 per cent last November.

About 38 per cent thought it should be scrapped, down from 45 per cent in April and 46 per cent last November.

The shift in support for the registry came mainly among women, Ontarians and those earning between $60,000 and $100,000 a year.

We already know the registry enjoys overwhelming support in Quebec. The fact the numbers are changing in Ontario is very significant, and explains the wisdom in the Liberals strategy.

I’ve followed these gun registry polls for sometime, and I’ve clashed with proponents using them as backdrop. This is the first time we’ve seen significant movement, which speaks to the influence of the new evidence and advocates. This is a fluid situation, people make a mistake relying on ancient data. 

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