Nanos poll shows solid Conservative lead of 11 points

This morning’s Nanos poll shows a solid Conservative lead of 11 points, with some interesting regionals:

Cons 40.7% 
Libs 29.4% 
NDP 16.9%
Greens 4%

Both main parties down slightly today, the Conservatives up in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, the Liberals well down in Atlantic Canada. These regionals offset what is becoming a developing trend in Ontario:

Can’t recall any recent polls pegging Liberals support quite this high, you see a fairly rapid narrowing in Ontario. I’ve said it a million times, there is a decent subset in Ontario that changes intention with the slightest breeze, here we see weak Conservatives support gravitating back to the Liberals. Regionals losses elsewhere mask this possible trend in Ontario, but it’s a good one for the Liberals. I note here, scanning Ontario headlines, columns, newscasts, very favorable coverage for the Liberals the last few days. Also, Nanos shows virtually non-existent Green support, a vote splitting consideration, as Ontario shapes up as a clear two party race.

Another angle that has quite registered yet, Nanos shows continually erosion of Bloc support in Quebec, now down to 33.8%. The Conservatives only 8% back, followed by the Liberals stuck at 22%. My only real beef with our campaign to date, actually our strategy for two years, the apparent lack of real focus in Quebec. There are seats available for the Liberals, not to mention any sense of national momentum is forever blunted by lowly standing in Quebec. Appears calculations have been made, but it’s also true the Liberals have never formed government without a decent tally in Quebec. Let’s hope we see more than token appearances in Quebec, because voters are clearly looking around.

As an aside, I read an article this morning from one of the pollsters, stating that voters are just starting to tune it. An important fact to keep in mind.

Click HERE to read more from Steve Val.

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