Good news for the Liberals in the latest poll

For the second time this year, a pollster has pegged support for both main parties below 30% concurrently- a dynamic never seen before. This poll is sort of a mixed bag from the Liberal perspective. On the one hand, hard to argue with a statistical tie, given polling of recent months. As well, Liberal support shows an uptick, coming off the almost dangerous levels we’ve seen recently. For these reasons, a bit of optimism is warranted. 

This poll is a very bad result for the Conservatives, showing serious erosion from both their 2008 and 2006 election totals. That these numbers come during the supposedly favorable summer break is all the more concerning. Also an issue, despite the perceived strength of the Canadian economy, international praise, this government is seeing no benefit to their fortunes. The problems for the Conservatives would be more discussed I suspect, if not for one simple fact- the Liberals aren’t capitalizing. Go back a few years, to the last time the Conservatives were scoring at the 30% level and you had a Liberal party well in the lead, forming a steady minority government. Today, the Conservatives at the same level, and yet their anemic competition would still allow a slender Conservative minority. In other words, the Conservatives don’t receive full negative analysis, because the Liberals are perpetually stalled, unable to capitalize. Voters are looking beyond BOTH parties, the 13% plus Green number in Ontario a prime example. As I said when the Conservatives had a sizeable lead, if you look carefully, there is really no love in the land for either option.

An improved poll from the Liberal perspective, but really a fascinating testament to a very fractured and unimpressed electorate.

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