Morning Stock Market Report: Don’t let one good day fool you!

This article was last updated on May 20, 2022

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Monday featured strength in key tech names and small cap stocks. Amazon, Comcast and even Microsoft led the way to enable a Dow gain of about 1%. Don’t let the point gain of 108 points fool you; it was just a rise of a little more than .9% accompanied by sluggish volume.
 
Notice the volume bars on the lower right of the chart. Where is the volume?? A real buyer’s strike continues in this market. The chop continues.

Upward motion in the markets is led by weak handed shorts and short term long scalpers. This chart also shows the self fulfilling prophesy, at least so far, of the 200 day moving average (red line in actual SPX chart) as key support. But notice too the  downward slant in the 50dma (black line SPX chart). The 50 and 200 day moving average convergence is becoming more noticeable. A death cross of the 50 dma to below the 200 dma lurks unless a real rally sets in. 

 
 
It’s for good reason that a buyer’s strike continues thereby preventing an after-burner sort of rally. It’s called Greece and the Eurozone. A fresh two day strike is underway with the violence factor upped a notch. The key austerity cuts debate continues in Parliament. It’s going to be an interesting 48 hours.
   
Streaming Video From Syntagma Square – First Day Of Greek General Strike: Dailymotion – LIVE STREAMING: Γενική Απεργία ενάντια στο μεσοπρό http://t.co/AgRMSGj via @DailymotionUSA 
  
This feed shows the very noticeable riot police vs the people in the streets.
  
For now, however, Greek markets are betting on Papa http://dlvr.it/Y8Bwj, according to blogger and author Barry Ritholz. But if the type of protests continue as seen in the feeds, maybe the Papa name will be sent packing. But betting on the PTB in Greece being ousted is a risky bet considering the puppet masters who are still in charge.  
 
The latest data bit: April Case-Shiller: -3.96% vs -3.95% est. In line with analysts’ forecasts and in line with everyone’s expectations in general. Residential RE remains in the tank.  No surprise there and I won’t be surprised, unless creative fixes are made, that this will be the same sort of headline even 5 to 10 years from now.
  
Ahead of the Wall Street open, stocks are poised to try to build on yesterday’s rise.  Though not everyone is convinced. My friend @RMBrenna at the CBOT tweets: traders added 56K July 127 puts to open interest yesterday. That’s a lot of put buying, or bets on the 1270 S&P level being taken out. Not shown on the chart above is the 20 day moving average. That’s likely to be a key testing area today. About 7 points above. Some sort of miracle to the Greek situation could certainly pop the market upward for a short time.
 
The overall message from this market is to remain nimble. Take the long opportunities as they come, but to recognize that the chart pattern has been down since early May. That’s a reality that still seems tough for many on the twitter stream to accept, but not a surprise given the long term uptrend witnessed from last September to March.  The overall trend is your friend.
 
The QE factor is important. QE2 ends with only 3 more official QE2 POMOs left between now and the end of the month. POMO, however, won’t be going away. The Ben Buck’s will not stop.  Eventually, the FED will have to admit to a new QE3 plan to restart the Ben Buck’s machine in earnest, but during the interim period, the punch bowl will not be completely taken away. Whether enough punch is available during the interim remains to be seen as the punch has needed to be stronger and stronger over time.
 
A few other news and notes:   
  
On the surface, this looks great: RT @CNNMoney Apple’s Asia-Pacific profits grew 2,991% in past 5 years http://bit.ly/j7Hwvi. But, when you consider the law of large numbers. Perhaps that size growith is just a bit too high?
  
As of pre market this morning: MasterCard’s $MA Website Down, Hackers Apparently Attacking.
 
Stocks to Watch….

Watch Nike. Up about 5% this morning and a five cent earnings beat.
 
RT @lamonicabuzz $YOKU wants to be China’s Hulu. Up 5% pre-market on premium deal with Warner Bros. – which is owned by CNNMoney parent
 
Potash producers raising prices on ‘almost a constant basis’ | MINING.com: http://t.co/N34V87g
  
FT:  Gold and silver fabrics – the latest Indian fashion statement http://on.ft.com/k0a4IF

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