Latest poll shows clear Conservative lead over Liberals

The latest Nanos poll tends to confirm what others have found. In the last week, we’ve now seen four separate outfits, with almost consensus results, each showing a wide Conservative lead, majority support within reach, while the Liberals are mired at recent historic lows.

Nanos puts Conservative support at their highest level for this pollster. The Conservatives are at 39.7%, a high water mark only matched the last time Ignatieff threatened an election. What makes this poll more pronounced, while the Conservatives have "touched" 40% during the aforementioned period, Liberal support never ebbed this low, 26.6%. In other words, from the Liberal perspective just about the most brutal NANOS finding recorded.

Poll to poll, the Conservatives are up slightly, but the real story is cratering Liberal support, down a well outside MOE 4.6%. Across the board erosion, but a particularly odd 15.6% dip in the "Prairies", almost 50% support loss. That numbers smells fishy, and the high MOE makes it virtually irrelevant. That said, this incredibly low total does impact the Liberal national number more than most "Prairie" findings.

A decent poll for the NDP, up to 18.9%, from 17.2%, particularly healthy at 23% in Ontario, something we haven’t seen recently. Layton also bests Ignatieff on the leadership index, as he hovers in Dion terrority.

Okay, so we now have a slew of polls telling the exact same story. Rather than dismiss, important to digest and understand. I still see soft support moving here, nothing written in stone, step away from the ledge but note the breeze. A combination of attack ads and election sabre rattling might be the real movers. I’m inclined to believe attack ads, as WELL as the bombardment on the EAP ads, are having an impact. Canadians still don’t want an election, but we’ve seen evidence that we’re resigned, so I don’t know how much of the shift is due to the Liberals appearing eager. One other factor, we’ve also seen more comfort with the direction of the economy, a core issue that might also be contributing.

The polls are what they are, I don’t see any need for the Liberals to reaccess their strategy. I’ve watched to many campaigns, here and down south, to know the pre-writ is just that, particularly with a new leader, writing off and being conclusive, an amateurish pursuit to be honest. That said, one does wonder how the Conservatives amend their stance, because they must see some enticement now, the elusive majority at least a possibility. This new reality may explain why the Conservatives seem less responsive to deal making, outright rejecting some NDP demands, their internals might now be showing similar possibilities.

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  1. 82 people in each province provcomment_IDed nanos with an answer. On the weekend. 200 of the 1016 polled were undeccomment_IDed. This was a knee jerk reaction poll to in some backwater way to tell Canadians we don’t care about the Oda scandal.

    Furthermore, as noted pollsters have been saying all week, once 85% of the demographic could be reached by land line — once — now less than 20% are reached. The under 35 demographic is not even represented. (cellphones)

    Call an election, that’s where the real truth of this “harper majority” will come to bare.

  2. As of today EKOS polling shows a massive drop in Conservative support and according to NANOS most of us particularly do not welcome a Harper Conservative majority government.

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