Canadian Election 2011: Will NDP win Ontario?

Nothing is etched in stone here, I sense softness and my chief worry is that if the Liberals don’t appear viable, a "stop Jack" sentiment runs to the Conservatives as the only credible option. This proposition is clearly a possible scenario, and I’d describe yesterday as a bad day for the NDP, at a bad time. The trick here, separating our plugged in perceptions with that of the average voter, are they noticing what is somewhat of a "goofy" NDP at this stage?

I am not seeing a formidable counter from the NDP on the economic front. The question now is do voters ride the wave, particularly in Ontario, or do they give sober assessment? In addition, do those that have hesitations bypass the Liberals because the Conservatives offer the only "stop" option? Nanos shows a slight Liberal uptick in Ontario, if there is any NDP erosion, it must go to the Liberals or Harper will get, at least, a very strong minority and outcomes entirely unclear. Angus Reid now pegs Conservative support over 40% in Ontario, a relative uptick that could suggest my potential scenario.

It looks to me like Liberals are determined on the ground, no giving up, I think people actually appreciate we are fighting for our lives. Government out of the question, it’s now a matter of saving seats, maybe grabbing a couple here and there to offset, everyone knows the reality, it’s focused the fight. In terms of future relevance, these are critical days, hang on to a respectable total and it can be rebuilt, collapse, well… This spirit may help draw any potential NDP erosion to the Liberal fold, otherwise the Conservatives could benefit, then vote splits really kick in.

I expect the NDP to hold in Quebec, I expect the NDP to hold in British Columbia, I have no idea in Ontario. I don’t like what I’ve seen the past few days, the NDP have struck me as optical amateur hour on the economy. That’s a dangerous development, given all Harper has left is this sense of economic prowess. Is it "change" in Ontario, or will there be "what the hell are we doing here" emerge with late breakers? Who knows really, but when it comes to Ontario, where I’ve forever stressed volatily, "locking in" seems premature, even this late in the game.

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