New poll shows a widening Conservative lead

A new poll from Angus Reid, which shows a widening Conservative lead, up to 8%:

Con. 34%
Lib. 26%
NDP 11%
BQ 11%
Grn 10%

Conservatives up 1%, Liberals down 3%, NDP down 1%, Greens up 2%. Looking at the regionals, the Ontario numbers have held firm, virtually no change from the last Angus Reid poll. Ditto for Quebec, which means the national race change is largely due to a more reasonable Liberal tally in Atlantic Canada and a noticeable pullback in British Columbia and Man/Sask. With regard to regionals, really only Ontario and Quebec have a low enough MOE to say anything definitive (based on one poll), so whether this is noise or real, remains to be seen. Regardless, the headline shows a widening Conservative lead, and that’s all that really matters.

A couple things that struck me with this poll. While AR still shows Layton relatively "popular", we do see a very noticeable change on some key measures, well outside the normal incremental moves with AR. For instance, in one month Layton’s disapproval total has risen 5%, a relatively large swing. Even more telling, we see a large 8% rise in the number of people who’s opinion of Layton has worsened. Further on the question of "weak", with Ignatieff dropping and Layton rising, we see a statistical tie, for the first time I can remember. Dippers will still point to the overall tallies, but in this case the devil is clearly in the details.

As far as Ignatieff, obviously large challenges still exist. I would note however that we see another drop on the "arrogant" front. This means that since October 2009, Ignatieff has brought this number down a full 16%, from a half to a third of Canadians. The trend is positive, and it’s important, because this perception one of the chief achilles heels. I also note, another slight drop on the "out of touch" front, again a key consideration. 

Overall, Angus Reid seems to put the horserace numbers back where they’ve had them most of the year, with the exception of their poll last month. Ignatieff mania is still a indie consideration- get in while it’s still cool! 

Related Articles

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


Confirm you are not a spammer! *