Market participants appear hoping for repeat of China demand boom of 2002/7 and its post 2008 echo but reality from measured currency appreciation and wage gain may be higher domestic consumption over time but at the expense of margins now. These developments likely make political decisions globally to be of heightened interest and instruments as diverse as sovereign country bonds to financial institution equities subject to more uncertainty than in the last cycle. Fixed income is likely to be more individual security driven but risk re-pricing has started in convoluted fashion, albeit in Europe. In equities, new cycle change often starts in out-of-favor segments. Japanese equities peaked at the end of the 1980s and information technology at the end of the 1990s. Of the two, information technology is more likely to lead first as it has restructured dramatically, without recourse to government and with advantages of internalized growth of appeal for domestic and global money managers alike
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