We are starting to get a clearer picture of the dynamics in play, although still some completely contradictory findings. On the latter point, I note that AR shows Ignatieff gaining traction, his approval rising a statistically significant 6% to a still modest 25%. Nanos shows a flatline number, even erosion, day to day, no sense of any direction. Of note here, Harris Decima earlier this week also showed a sizable 12% rise in Ignatieff’s favorables. In addition, AR also mirrors Harris Decima, in finding rising disapproval for Harper, lowering approval.
As far as clarity, somewhat consistent national results, general provincial themes. Since the start of the campaign, the huge gap has narrowed somewhat, if anyone has momentum it’s the Liberals. That said, the gap is still FORMIDABLE, so optimism also factors realism. For Liberals the trends are positive, chipping away was the only avenue, so in certain regards, so far, so good. Another commonality, in a general sense, it does appear that the Bloc is somewhat vulnerable in Quebec, most pollsters show mid to low 30’s now, EKOS comes in with a 28.3% finding (down a full 8%). I’d be cautious about EKOS, does seem a tad low, but maybe they are capturing a downward trend. Stepping back from individual findings, it does appear Bloc fatigue maybe real, although it remains to be seen if any other party can capitalize.
There was one striking result in the EKOS poll that deserves consideration. Graves finds a sharp spike on the wrong direction score for the government:
Direction of country:
¤ 52.5% right direction
¤ 36.4% wrong direction
¤ 11.0% DK/NR
Direction of government
¤ 40.1% right direction
¤ 51.3% wrong direction
¤ 8.5% DK/NR
Noteworthy, the wrong direction score for the government is the highest we’ve seen in months. Perhaps an even bigger concern, the disconnect between apparent optimism about the country and attitudes towards the government. It would appear, Harper isn’t directly benefiting from improving economic fortunes, given this is their cornerstone argument, a surprising weak point.
In summary, narrowing but big Conservative lead, Ignatieff showing signs of life, Liberals can claim limited momentum.
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