Why Passing House Immigration Bills in the Next Congress Matters, Pt. 1

This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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The effort to pressure House Republicans to pass a Senate-like immigration bill is heating up. At the Washington Post, liberal blogger Greg Sargent warns, “On immigration, the GOP’s window for action is closing fast.” He reports that several immigrations activists told him that, “The president made it clear that three months from now, if there is no legislative action, he will do more using executive authority. That was the message that we got in different ways.”

Message to Republicans: Pass the Democratic immigration bill by the summer, or else!

Or else what? Well, the president will further expand the range and scope of the administrative amnesties that have been a cornerstone of his immigration enforcement policies. A new report by Jessica Vaughan details the administration’s wholesale abandonment of immigration enforcement, including but not limited to those with criminal convictions on their record.

The revved-up effort at rhetorical pressure reflects an acute Democratic fear and a Republican immigration reform opportunity. It is succinctly, in the words of Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.), head of the House Democratic Caucus, to the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, “If we don’t get it done soon, if we don’t get a vote in the House of Representatives, we have to start from scratch.”

If the Senate’s massive immigration bill is not signed into law before the next Congress is officially seated and brought into formal session, that bill dies. And die it will, in its present form, even if Republicans do not win control of the Senate.

This raises two questions. What will House Republicans do? And what should House Republicans do?

The official Democratic pundit view on both questions is quite clear. Quoting Greg Sargant again (first and third emphasis in original, second emphasis mine):

Some might respond that once Republicans control the Senate next year, they can simply pass reform in both chambers on their own terms. But foes of reform will point to the GOP victory as proof they don’t need reform to win. Anything Republicans pass will be extremely inadequate — a combination of enforcement and citizenship for just the DREAMers, say — and won’t solve the crisis afflicting a whole community. That won’t fix the GOP’s Latino problem. Plus, this is a pretty big gamble to begin with, since Republicans might not win back the Senate.

Bottom line: There is good reason to believe that if House Republicans don’t act in the next few months, nothing serious is going to happen until at least 2017. Republicans will be heading into another presidential election without having done anything significant — or perhaps anything at all — to prove their willingness to address a humanitarian crisis afflicting a segment of the electorate that votes in presidential elections and continues to grow in many of the key swing states.

There you have the Democratic fear, and the Republican risk and opportunity in a nutshell. Mr. Sargent, clearly reflecting Democratic concerns, argues that if the Republicans don’t pass a Senate-like immigration bill this year, they are unlikely to pass anything, and besides what they are likely to pass will be “inadequate”.

I’m reminded here of the proverbial politician who, caught red-handed in a transgression, denies that he did it, but promises never to do it again.

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