Significance of Nanos offering

Federal polls at this moment are mostly irrelevant, but this new Nanos offering is noteworthy on a couple fronts. First off, I have been of the mindset we Liberals are relegated to third place until well after the NDP leadership race, primarily because of a belief that contest would suck all the opposition oxygen, leaving us to fight for headline scraps. However, to date, this NDP leadership race has been pure VANILLA, early days, but so far nothing terribly compelling. Add in a dose of unexpected positive Liberal press- the Rae love in- and the dynamics have changed slightly(note the polling days mostly prior to Peter C. Newman digestion).

The numbers(last NANOS in brackets):
Conservatives 35.6% (37.7%)
Liberals 28.1% (23.4%)
NDP 27.3% (30%)
Greens 3.9% (3.8%)

An outside the margin of error move for the Liberals, as it appears they take votes from the NDP and Conservatives. The above rationale, as well as a negative flavour to the Conservatives heavy handed tactics in Ottawa, might explain the Liberals solid result. Decent coverage(Rae and renewal), a mostly invisible Official Opposition and Conservatives playing the Parliamentary bully game equates to a statistical move.

The regionals show the Liberals in first within vote rich Ontario:
Liberals 38.8% (30.5%)
Conservatives 37.2% (42.4%)
NDP 19.6% (22.5%)
Greens 3.8% (4.6%)

That is a clear shot in the arm result for the Liberals, suggesting there is still fertile ground, as well as hard to define tether to provincial standing. The McGuinty Liberals are alive and well in Ontario, so it does bleed some credibility as an option to the federal counterpart? Just a theory.

Nanos also find some evidence of Quebec erosion for the NDP, I only mention it because he is alone. Again, I’m a bit surprised to see the NDP faltering a bit, at least at this stage, but it is fair to say Turmel has been an utter non-factor and voters aren’t sure where the party is headed. One BIG caution here, this NDP race WILL heat up, the battle will be joined and the debate should heighten exposure, so this could well be a temporary pause/pullback during a lull period.

In two years, when both the Liberals and NDP have new leaders, then the polls start to become instructive as to future possibilities. However, for a party desperate to remain in the conversation as a viable option, results like these tend to blunt the funeral processions, so they are not completely throw aways. This poll also demonstrates why I prefer MAYBES over the unequivocal proclamations of certain authors; that stuff bites you in the ASS every time, politics never sympathetic to absolutes, to fluid for theorems.

Click HERE to read more from Steve Val.
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