Canadian Election Anyone?

The latest Nanos is pretty much more of the same, a "political rut" as characterized by the pollster. I’d like to look at these number, in the context of what is required to change the "political impasse".

The horserace numbers, fall into the same boring pattern we’ve seen since the Ignatieff honeymoon phase. In fact, there really is nothing more to be gleemed from these numbers, the dynamic never changes, we all just chase statistical noise that rarely sustains itself. 

The only area of interest, and we’ve seen this "new low" dynamic from a couple pollsters, Harper looks increasingly vulnerable. Nanos gives Harper the lowest best PM score since he took office. People will remember, the last EKOS saw the lowest direction of government score "in a decade". While these numbers aren’t translating necessarily to the horserace, they denote an underlying erosion in sentiment for this government. This erosion is masked by the failure of the opposition to capture votes, but it remains under the surface and the potential to exploit is certainly there.

My new working thesis, it’s status quo until an election. Liberals waiting for the optimal polling conditions will wait forever, notwithstanding some massive government implosion, voters aren’t coming in any meaningful way. People simply aren’t paying attention to the daily machinations, only an election will force some consideration, everything else is just jockeying. Harper is losing popularity, but voters aren’t moving to alternatives, because they lack confidence and/or inspiration. Ignatieff is unlikely to get traction until the big lights of an election allow for re-positioning. 

I’m not saying we force an election. However, we now have the defined points of distinction for the next election, the broad themes already there in my view. Of course, we still have to see platforms, the details, but everyone knows where this election debate will be fought. With this knowledge in mind, it’s almost a "get on with it" feel developing, and Nanos seems to confirm that fact with his commentary. Again, don’t be provocative, but when the next line in the sand comes, Liberals shouldn’t cower because they are waiting for the ideal conditions to arrive. Those conditions aren’t coming, an election seems the only catalyst that can change this "rut".

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