Conservatives plummet 4.5% in the latest EKOS poll

The latest EKOS is out, with some fairly major shifts poll to poll. I admit a bit stumped to explain the Conservatives plummeting 4.5% and the NDP rising 4.2%, big moves for an EKOS poll. The regionals look a bit wacky to me, I’ll leave it at that 😉

What I do find noteworthy, this now recurring circumstance, wherein the two main parties both poll below 30% simultaneously. I believe this is the third time now that EKOS has published this dynamic recently, as well as a relatively recent Harris Decima poll. Also worth a mention, NDP support when we’ve seen this result isn’t remarkable, actually averaging below 2008 levels. In this poll we see a sizeable NDP gain, but that wasn’t the case for EKOS the two previous times we’ve seen the "everyone below" 30 release.

I see this result as further evidence, supporting my general thesis that people are decidedly unimpressed with any of the traditional options. As someone pointed out to me, there is no historical precedent in Canadian history, wherein Libs and Cons both poll so low, simultaneously. Add in NDP stagnation, you are left with a compelling case. EKOS pegs Green support at 10.7%, which is actually down week to week. Given that the environment no longer registers as a top voter issue, that the Greens continue to grow in support, is that much more telling. It would seem the Green draw is now that of a true alternative to the establishment parties. 

All I know, no matter the opposition positioning, no one should fear a sitting government that polls so low, that has very poor "direction" ratings. The Conservatives are not a juggernaut, no love exists in the land. In my view, this reality sugggests a real vulnerability as well as a latent CHANGE feeling brewing in the electorate. An election may very well be a spark in this regard. 

EKOS also asks about the F35 issue, with some interesting results. On the face, we see a slim majority opposing the F35 purchase, 54%-46%. However, in terms of strong feeling, we see 33% opposed, only 20% support. Looking at the regionals, it becomes more unclear if the Conservatives really benefit being the only party on the "support" side. A complicating factor, if one takes the Liberal position, some of the support side could be siphoned off. I would argue this point because the Liberals aren’t saying no planes, just not these planes. The EKOS phrasing here doesn’t incorporate alternative purchases and I suspect many that support F35s would be amenable to another plane. Is it this plane, or the general sense that you support or oppose replacing our current fighter jet? Big distinction in my view.
 

Anyways, another poll, providing further confirmation of a uninspired electorate… 

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