Harris Decima Poll: No majority for Conservatives in Canada

Harris Decima weighs in, and it looks like last week’s majority is now off:

A new poll by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima suggests the Tories have the support of 31 per cent of Canadians, statistically tied with the Liberals at 29 per cent.

That’s far from the support levels needed to win a majority.

"I cannot see any political party being advantaged by precipitating an election."

Gregg said the results reflect the "political stasis" that’s gripped the federal scene for most of the last five years. The two main parties have been stalled in a virtual tie, with occasional, but short-lived, surges or dips for one or the other.

For the most part, Gregg said the brief fluctuations have been the result of missteps by the Tories but the Liberals have never been able to "hold them to the ground" for more than a few weeks.

Nationally, the latest survey put NDP support at 15 per cent and the Greens’ at 11.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois continued to dominate with 44 per cent to the Liberals’ 23. The Tories were well back at 11 per cent, statistically tied with the NDP at 10 per cent and only marginally ahead of the Greens at seven.

In the key electoral battleground of Ontario, which will likely determine the outcome of next election, the Liberals and Tories were tied at 36 per cent each. The NDP trailed with 14 per cent, just ahead of the Greens at 12.

Of note, not only does Harris Decima fail to show "wind in the sails" for the government, we see a tightening race. From the last HD poll, the Conservatives are down 2%, the Liberals up 1%, a slight Conservative lead is now a statistical tie. Gregg’s analysis of the results is eerily similarly to Graves from EKOS last week, who also sees little movement in the polls. Of the more reputable firms, NANOS results diverge, while Angus Reid shows a sizeable Conservative lead, although their numbers are static as well.

I keep highlighting Ontario as volatile, poll chasing a waste of time, given the consistent, persistent, reaccuring movement we’ve seen since the last election. HD has the two parties in a dead heat, each at 36%, which incidentally is the midway score for both, within this well established range.

I suppose the one interesting tidbit, this is the first poll since the much covered assault on the ear drums by the Prime Minister. No evidence of any bounce, but I’m not particularly surprised- been there, done that.

This poll is instructive in one sense, because it once again hammers home the error of chasing each result and then ramping up election speculation, based on a NOT yet established trend. I don’t think the polls are particularly great for the Liberals, but it’s also true that the Conservatives remain vulnerable. If people want to make definitive arguments, based upon SOFT support vacillating around, well that’s mostly a fools game from here.

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