EKOS gives the Conservatives a 4.5% lead. Compared to the other pollsters, we find the discrepancy culprit resides where it always does, ONTARIO. EKOS shows a dead heat in Ontario, while others have shown a sizable Conservative lead, this the point of divergence. Who’s right? Well nobody, because you are trying to gauge the most volatile of electorates, the 10-15% of Ontarians that change their minds often, a fact which every poll since the last election will support. The Liberals have bested 40% in Ontario, the Conservatives the same, and both seem to find a bottom around 30%. The numbers move around, they never maintain themselves, the slightest breeze and they flip. It is here where the national numbers move, here where we all try to find meaning, and really its all about a percentage of the population that doesn’t have any real strong ties to anybody- up for grabs and always available come election time, no matter the pre-writ leanings. That’s a fact, and I bet if the pollsters tried to gauge firm commitment, they would find Ontario is exactly as I argue.
Rather than overstate, every time we see the same pattern manifest itself, I think it better to see if the trend holds for a few months. If we see this circumstance- which we haven’t by the way- then we can say something is afoot. Until then, maybe review the last couple years, watch how things ebb and flow within a range, and realize we are applying large meaning to the most superficial of movement.
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