When the latest Nanos poll
came out showing a resurgent Liberal Party, it showed a strong uptick in Ontario and British Columbia. Strangely absent from the Nanos Trudeaumania party was Quebec- numbers essentially flat -which I found a little odd to be honest. However, along comes the Quebec "gold standard" poll CROP and we see the Trudeau effect
, the Liberals stunningly surge to first place in the province:
Justin Trudeau led Liberals emerge from the abyss it reached the last federal election. At 36%, he would arrive first in Quebec, the NDP (30%), the Bloc Quebecois (19%) and the Conservative Party (11%).
Without Trudeau the Liberals are at 20%, an uptick from past polling, but he brings an additional 16% when his name is attached to the brand. What is perhaps most concerning for the NDP, Justin isn't an unknown in the province, the same previous arguments I made for Liberal concern with Mulcair's popularity can be applied here. In other words, shiny new toy doesn't quite digest where Trudeau may stand in his home province, Quebecers know him, they know him well. A snapshot in time, many assumptions made, Trudeau isn't leader of anything at the moment, but still, the polls do show Justin is a potential game changer in every sense of the word.
The three most important provinces in the next election are unquestionably Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. The fact that we now see interesting evidence of a Liberal wave in all these provinces, simply seismic. These numbers will only solidify Trudeau and bring more support within Liberal ranks, everyone loves a messiah! For other leadership contenders, the gradient gets more daunting, the perception becomes reality, Trudeau is a rock star.
to read more from Steve Val