From seemingly out of nowhere, the mainstream media has focused attention this weekend on the travails of the Italian financial system. To make a long story short, EU officials will be sprouting up in Brussels for an emergency meeting. A euro bailout package valued at 1.5 trillion euros, yes that is TRILLION and not an error, is being contemplated to protect Italy.
The other piece of this story is the thought that maybe it would be best for Greece to default on some of its debt to bring about a more sustainable shot at getting out from under the remaining debt. Wow, you can’t make this stuff up.
One by one the dominos are falling. Spain, Portugal and the UK are still waiting in the wings. Withe France and Germany to follow.
At 11 a.m. Monday President Obama is expected to make a statement about the debt ceiling talks. At last word Speaker Boehner was caving on the $4trl in cuts initiative for $2 trl but insisting on no new taxes that the dems are seeking. Herding ferrets would be easier than getting these corrupticians to do anything constructive. Even if common ground was found at the $4 trl mark, what is that compared to a $14 trl debt load and about 80 trl in future liabilities? A big joke. I am convinced that they will come up with some sort of last minute agreement to extend and pretend.
Without rehashing everything, please remember my statements about the cirrhosis of liver moment this country is facing. Barring miracle economic growth from real economic activity and not bailouts and money printing, this country’s currency is finished over the long run. The math says it all. Once we get to debt service consuming 50%+ of federal revenue within just 3 to 5 years, it’s over for FRNs, IF the overhang of a quadrillion dollars+ in derivatives doesn’t kill the financial system first.
When you think about it, it’s been 40 years since the last US default (the closing of the gold window in 1971). About 40 years before (1933) the US defaulted and effectively declared bankruptcy. So we are at another 40 year cycle point. Will history rhyme?
The result of all of this will be another Precious Metals breakout. IMHO we are rapidly approaching a point where gold will decouple from the falling dollar, rising stock market relationship. Gold is the only currency in this paradigm that is not flawed.
We witnessed a potent $30+ move in gold last week. Next up will be $50 and and $100 daily moves.
Alcoa earnings are due this week, traditionally the first of the Dow components to report. Next week brings an even bigger barrage of corporate numbers.
Bernanke will be delivering what was once known as Humphrey Hawkins testimony to Capitol Hill. His little lies are the stuff of legendary You tube clips. Cue Fleetwood Mac’s, "Little Lies" song!
It’s going to be a busy and potentially an extra volatile week on Wall Street.
Another Nail In The Dollar’s Coffin: CME Launching Renminbi Futures On August 22 http://is.gd/tPzH2y
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