The “Last Poll” for Ontario Election

This morning I read the Angus Reid poll that showed the PC’s in the lead and was a bit surprised they hadn’t captured any Liberal move, it reeked outlier. Dubbed the “Last Poll”, the results were as such:

Tories are at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 33 per cent, the New Democrats at 26 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent.

However, that was SO this morning, turns out Angus Reid went back into the field today and suddenly found that Liberal surge others had shown:

Liberals 37%, Progressive Conservatives 33%, New Democrats 26%, Greens 3%,

Okay, so the last poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday had a 3% PC edge, then the new last poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday shows a 4% Liberal lead. If accurate, a massive swing in one day of polling, by any standard.

A quibble, this morning AR said:

The Progressive Conservatives continue to boast the best retention rate of all contending parties (84%), followed by the NDP (79%). In contrast, the Liberals are holding on to 66 per cent of their voters in 2007, and the Greens to 48 per cent.

The latest last poll:

The late change in Liberal fortunes lies in the unmistakable return of Ontarians who supported the governing party in the 2007 election. In this final survey of absolutely certain voters, the retention rate for the Liberals is 75 per cent, compared to 66 per cent in the middle of the campaign.

Compared to middle of the campaign? Try way, way back to THIS morning. A bit of a odd disconnect, but perhaps a testament to that volatility in Ontario I’ve always highlighted.

Okay, now to the only poll that matters… May the DUD come through!

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