Not Confederation, But Total ‘Independence’ Mr Mbeki

"independence is an urge that no single amount of threat would drive away. It is something that can neither be blocked by Ali Karti’s threats of going back to war nor be bought by Mohammed Ali Taha’s 200 million pounds. And it is a popular quest that will not fall to the influence of Thabo Mbeki".

"In the 21st century, the world has changed, and especially Africa has changed. No nation is an island sufficient unto itself. The African Union is itself an expression of the African continent’s desire for integration and unity. The striving towards economic and political integration is more than a manifestation of Africa’s deep-seated recognition that our strength comes from our common identity. Closer ties among ourselves are a necessity for our continent’s security and development".

That statement by Mr Thabo Mbeki, the former President of South Africa and the current chairperson of African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) in post-referendum arrangement meeting is a strong sign of renewed version of the AU’s prioritized unity of Sudan all in the name of a certain confederation.

There was even more to think about when the former South African leader made nothing secret when he added what he would perceive of the two Sudans. "They have and shall exercise that right, at the time and in the way determined in the CPA. But the drive towards African integration and unity provides a context to the establishment of the nation-state different from what obtained fifty years ago". All this is baseless, irrelevant and total nonsense.

African integration relates not to the CPA. If the panel attempts to drive the Sudanese to a forced unity, then fine. Otherwise, it would be good if the African integration and unity be tried out between South Africa and Libya. An independent South Sudan may have no problem to join later.

The statement by Mr Mbeki is a simple replicate of the general attitude of the AU towards South Sudan. As a result, it must be taken this point that caution must be taken on the designed ‘confederation’ road in which this African Panel wants to divert the Southerners to. Mr Mbeki has made it vividly clear that he is here to employ the joint AU-NCP agenda of unity. Confederation or whatever he calls it this time, a poison which remains a poison even when coated in sugar. And this has to have some counter preparations made by Southern Sudanese people and all pro independence parties in Sudan to see to it that people are not robbed again of what they fought for with their lives for years.

I am one of those Sudanese who have for a long time lost confidence in the AU from the time they condemned the indictment of President al Beshir by the ICC. It indicates that AU has closed eyes on the suffering of Sudanese if justice can easily be sacrificed in protection of al Beshir. From this point it can not be difficult for the same AU’s panel under Mbeki to force a bitter and unwanted choice of modality down the throats of Southern Sudanese people during the referendum.

Whatever, the approach it is as clear as daylight that unity again has no chance. One has not to bother waste his or her time to paint it white or green at this hour with hope of having any Southerner to receive it gloriously with two hands. With all my due appreciation to AU on their concern for peace in Sudan, I still believe that their neutrality point grows weaker and weaker as they lean more to the North and NCP than to the South in drawing solutions to problems that we counter in the CPA.

From the perspective of the political history of Sudan, AU and Mbeki should not just form North-South pre-referendum or post-referendum options before they look into the South Sudan’s painful chapters of history; which should actually set up the basis of better expression of fundamental spirit of democracy.

The clamour of CPA is heard worldwide and it must yield what it was supposed to bring. And if freedom becomes the outcome of the CPA, then so be it. As a result, there is nothing that should be renegotiated in the CPA. Whether it is a formulation in the North or one feels he wants to care so much about the Southerners, it will not be any better than what was agreed and signed in the CPA.

The confederation that today has become the topic of day is in fact out of date. It is one modality that we tried and it failed. Mr Mbeki should then know that these were the same Southerners who were deceived in the 1956, immediately after the Sudan’s independence and are the same Southern Sudanese who experienced the same in 1972 Addis-Ababa Agreement. The CPA interim period 2005 – 2011 was a form of confederation; and we learnt a lot of lessons from it.

In 1994 Abuja peace negotiations between the Government of Sudan of al Beshir and the SPLA/M, the Southerners (notably the SPLA/M) had proposed ‘confederation’ but it was sternly and immediately turned down. Now what makes confederation the best and comfortable option by the same man who shut the door on it long ago?

There is no modality that we did not try within the 600 year old period we had with the Arabs in Sudan but none of them worked out. Unity was tried and it brought a series of wars, suffering and deaths. Sudan was again led in confederation-like modality as from 2005 but it was a period again full of deceits, militias, unfair share of resources, bullying and night dealings.

According to the CPA, the interim period was just an experiment from which one would be taken later in referendum between unity and separation. So, as per that the only modality that the Sudanese have never tried out and must now be accepted as stipulated in the CPA is the modality of a ‘separate South Sudan state’.

Confederation will have adverse effects on the South. The North Sudan will continue to regard South Sudan the same old way that Egypt regards them. The issue of second class citizenship will not change in the Confederation ruled Sudan. We have not been sharing the Sudan’s resources in a transparent manner since time memorial. It did not happen during the interim period even under the 50-50 CPA provision.

There will be a North Sudan that would dominate all what they called a common market, in a way that would suit the North again to under-develop and impoverish the South, which would make it difficult for the South to untie its hands no matter even if they go for another war. And by then there will be no another CPA and no another referendum.

It was observed during the Anglo-Egyptian rule in Sudan that the South Sudan people are by virtue of origin, race, culture and religion unmanageable in a united Sudan. It is worth noting that it was due to the denial of freedom to be a separate state during the Juba Conference (JC) of 1947 that later resulted in the 1956 Anyanya 1 war. And now, if we are to respect the lives that we lost in the last 2 decades long civil war, then we must not overstep the quest for an independent South Sudan. Because in doing so, there will be peace in abundance in the two Sudans where people would live as friendly and trading neighbours but where we share not governance or markets.

As it is already imminence in the hearts of all Southerners, independence is an urge that no single amount of threat would drive away. It is something that can neither be blocked by Ali Karti’s threats of going back to war nor be bought by Mohammed Ali Taha’s 200 million pounds. And it is a popular quest that will not fall to the influence of Thabo Mbeki.

Instead of having to go around too much, it is good to come to President al Beshir’s word in his election campaign in the South, ‘I will be the first to recognize the independence of South Sudan should the referendum results come in favour of separation’. If we did say things that we shall do after elections, then let the CPA’s wish and the wish of all Southern Sudanese be fulfilled by unconditionally delivering the right of the South’s citizens to vote in the referendum exactly on the 9th of January 2011, in a free, fair and peaceful conduct.

And our Thabo Mbeki, Chairman of the AU High-Level Implementation Panel, as a leader that came from the background of ‘apartheid’ should now bring down his high level of cooperation and collaboration with the Beshir’s NCP but rather lends his ears to the cry of freedom from the children of South Sudan. South Sudan suffers a different dreadful kind of apartheids. South Sudanese need independence the way South Africa needed independence; and Mbeki’s team should feel our desire that it is given the way it is stipulated in the CPA – a clear provision with no strings attached, not even a clause for the confederation.