Libya: Friday of Freedom

As I write this, it is 11am Eastern Standard Time while in Libya, it is 7 hours ahead, 6pm EET, Eastern European Time. Opposition groups have called for demonstrations across the country to mark “Friday of Freedom”.

After prayers on Friday, protesters came out by the hundreds to march in Tripoli. (Guardian) Security forces have been using teargas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse the crowds but reports have demonstrators regrouping despite the danger. People are apparently chanting “Gaddafi is the enemy of God.” while walls have been spray painted with graffiti reading: “Down with Gaddafi”. Security forces did conduct a series of pre-emptive raids on the homes of suspected opponents, but these seem to have done nothing to stop protests happening on Friday.

In the eastern part of the country, rebel forces are continuing to move westward. While Gaddafi loyalists in the past few days have attempted to retake lost ground, such as Brega and Ajdabiyah, their efforts have not gone well and the opposition is slowly expanding their hold. Curiously, there are reports that Libyan jets in carrying out bombing runs as part of the pro-Gaddafi offensives have missed their targets on several occasions. There is a growing belief in the opposition camp that pilots are deliberately disobeying orders. There have been numerous defections of both military and political figures and pilots not following orders could be another sign that the population of the country has had enough of 40 plus years of a dictatorship.

Obama

So far, the international community has not decided on any military options. The U.N. with various countries following suit have put an arms embargo in place and frozen Libyan assets. Creating a no-fly zone is under consideration, but nobody wants to make this big step to escalate foreign involvement in what so far, has been an internal conflict.

Reuters is reporting that President Obama said, “Muammar Gaddafi has lost the legitimacy to lead and he must leave.” Gaddafi isn’t heeding the call but this sentiment is being echoed by many world leaders. The winds of change sweeping across the Middle East have arrived in Tripoli and there is no way Muammar is going to get the toothpaste back in the tube. The opposition has gained too much momentum and the inevitable is going to come. The question is whether or not this mess will degenerate into a protracted civil war. That is completely up to Gaddafi.

Hugo

Hugo Chavez has made headlines in the past couple of days about “his plan” to mediate peace in Libya. Al Jazeera amusingly calls this “the Venezuelan president’s latest attention-grabbing foray onto the world stage”, but then goes on to say that experts warn Chavez risks ending up on the wrong side of history. Chavez is pro-Gaddafi but may just be the only leader in the world to make such a claim. The general consensus of opinion is that Gaddafi represents a “discredited regime” which has to go. If there is any merit in Chavez involvement, it would be in providing Gaddafi with an honourable way out so as to avoid more bloodshed stemming from a lengthy battle for the country. Newspapers are saying that opposition forces have rejected any mediation for peace, such as the one suggested by Chavez. They are only interested in negotiating for Gaddafi to step down.

Associated Press – Mar 2/2011

Expert: Libya Likely to Be Long, Bloody Conflict

Richard Downie, an expert on Africa at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington says he thinks the conflict in Libya will be long and bloody. He describes President Obama response as cautious and pragmatic.

Associated Press – Mar 2/2011

Libya Conflict: US Has Few Good Options

he Obama administration is being urged to stop the slaughter of Moammar Gadhafi’s opponents in Libya, but though it’s considering military options, many of them have a distinct downside. AP White House Correspondent Mark Smith reports.

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