Increased costs reduced the HS2 cost-benefit ratio

This article was last updated on April 16, 2022

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According to a latest business case for the HS2 line published on Tuesday, the already estimated cost-benefit ratio of the controversial £50bn HS2 high-speed rail project has now reduced than previous forecasts due to increased costs of the project.

The cost-benefit analysis shows that for every £1 spent, a benefit of £2.30 will be produced; compared to the £2.50 which was estimated in August 2012.

The HS2 Ltd has told the new calculations for benefit-cost ratio (BCR) were established after recalculation of the number of business people using the line and the amount of work they complete while they are travelling.

HS2 is predicted to be completed by 2026 that would run between London and Birmingham. A second, Y-shaped route would later connect Manchester and Leeds from 2032/33.

However the reduced BCR has made the opponents of the scheme more concerned about giving the project up.

Stop HS2 campaign manager Joe Rukin said: “As we expected, the Government have pulled some random figures out of the air in a desperate attempt to con the public.

“As if by magic, they expect us to believe that, after three years, the economic case for HS2 has risen like a phoenix from the flames. They surely must realise that everyone is going to see through this cynical attempt at spin.”

“Every case they have put up for HS2 so far has been torn apart, and this one will be no different. It is really quite sad that the Government thinks throwing everything at an expensive PR exercise will all of a sudden create support for HS2. They are just looking increasingly desperate and should give it up.”

On the other hand, Government is still supporting the project with Transport Minister Patrick McLoughlin saying the scheme was “a long-term solution to a long-term problem”.

He has added: “We need a radical solution and HS2 is it. A patch-and- mend job will not do – the only option is a new north south railway. Now is the time to be bold and deliver a world-class railway which Britain deserves and can truly be proud of. Future generations will not forgive us if we fail to take this opportunity.”

The published report also mentioned the alternatives to HS2 and referenced one from Network Rail and engineering company Atkins which said if HS2 did not go ahead, there could be 14 years of weekend engineering work ahead causing widespread disruption to the network.

The report released ahead of a key vote to be taken place on Thursday in parliament to secure further interim funding for HS2. Majority of MPs from both sides will vote in favour, although dozens of Conservative MPs are expected to withdraw their support.

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