Nanos poll shows a dead heat in Ontario

Rarely do you see a poll- particularly with the daily slew- that makes you do a double take, but this Nanos poll this morning is simply stunning. Still early, only one pollster, maybe a couple bad nights just need to work through the rolling total, caveat, caveats, but I can’t remember the NDP at 8.4% in Ontario, alarming evidence of a complete collapse.

Yesterday, in the comments, we were talking about vote splitting, the potential NDP erosion as factor for the other parties. However, and again BIG caveats, if anything like Nanos held on election day, it’s hard to fathom the consequence. In fact, the conventional wisdom might need a readjustment, utter collapse, hard to see who the ultimate benefactor would be. 

Nanos shows a dead heat in Ontario:

Libs 42.8% (up 4.4%)
Cons 42.1% (down 3.3%)
NDP 8.4% (down 2.8%)
Greens 5.1% (up 1.1%)

Hard pressed to remember as high a Liberal tally in recent memory. It is worth noting here, in the past, when one party touches or surpasses 40%, the other main is well back. Here we an anomaly, both parties about 40% concurrently. How that translates to seats, a bit "game changy" to say the least. The NDP have had two consecutive abysmal nights of polling in Ontario. Of note, high profile rallies for both the Liberals and Conservatives Thursday night in Hamilton, a NDP stronghold.

In Atlantic Canada, we see a nice chart for the Liberals, as they steadily come back and now best the Conservatives by the slightest of margins. Again though, the same dynamic as Ontario, both main parties very strong, at the same time, with the NDP now down to a low water 11.2%.

Quebec caught my eye in one respect, the Liberals are up 3 straight nights, from 4th in the province to a 2nd at 25%. Small gains, but better than the previous trend.

Things change quickly with polls, particularly in elections, so the NDP could well turn it around, Layton an able and attractive debator. However, my perceptions are now validated, this campaign isn’t going well for the NDP, their policies are mostly rehash, there is no "buzz" with anything they are presenting. This bizarre proposal to make gang participation illegal(as if gangsters are law abiding), an issue they chose to highlight one day, evidence of a campaign not quite resonating. Early days, but concerning days, no question about it.

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